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2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Link › 2AC---Link Defense

No rising prices

Stephanie Nunez, 20. Lead researcher at JFI; masters in economics and PhD in sociology. “New working paper explores a UBI in NYC and finds it would not lead to housing inflation.” .

Second, and perhaps most interestingly, the authors find that contrary to common assumptions, a UBI does not generate housing market inflation. Instead, the combination of the benefits and taxes lead to a net reduction in rents and housing prices:

Housing consumption (dwelling size) falls by 2.8% and 6.8%. Lower demand for housing leads to lower rents, which fall by 3.8% and 9.0%, and lower house prices, which fall by 1.6% and 3.5%. The ratio of housing expenditures to income also falls, implying that housing becomes more affordable.

2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Link › 2AC---Link Defense

UBI won’t lead to inflation

Khalil Esmkhani, 21. Assistant Professor of Finance. 3-23-21. “Universal Basic Income and the City.” https://jainfamilyinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/jfi-ubi-and-the-city-2021.pdf.

The most important results for the housing market are that the lower income for those at the top leads to lower rents and prices per square foot, and to a lower home ownership rate. The housing expenditure to income ratio falls as well, suggesting that affordability improves as the real cost of housing falls. However, despite the lower cost of housing, less housing is built and used, since the city is, on average, poorer. This alleviates concerns that UBI would lead to inflation of house prices and rents.

2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Link › 2AC---Link Defense

Rates won’t skyrocket BUT even if there is a bubble---crash is unlikely

Stephanie Landsman, 22. Senior content producer of CNBC. 5-16-22. “Home affordability at 2007 bubble levels, but crash is unlikely: Blackstone’s Joe Zidle.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/home-affordability-at-2007-bubble-level-but-crash-unlikely-blackstone.html

A major Wall Street firm is drawing a striking parallel to the housing bubble.

Blackstone’s Joe Zidle calls homes almost as unaffordable as the 2007 peak. Yet, he believes a crash is unlikely due to a major difference: Most owners aren’t using their homes like an ATM.

2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Link › 2AC---Link Defense

Even if prices go up---there’s no impact.

Marco Santarelli, 6-9. Investor, author, 5000 entrepreneur, and the founder of Norada Real Estate Investments. Host of Passive Real Estate Investing. 6-9-23. “Will Home Prices Drop in 2023: Housing Market Predictions.” .

Inflation is soaring, and there is a fear of an impending recession in the country. However, the majority of real estate professionals do not believe that the housing market is in a bubble or poses a threat to the faltering economy.

Housing caused the worst financial crisis in recent memory. When shoddy mortgages crumbled, the nation was left with foreclosures, numerous new houses remained empty, and millions of Americans were suddenly underwater. Throughout the preceding century, the housing market met considerable barriers, but none, with the exception of the Great Depression of 1929, led to the decrease in home values that happened during the Great Recession of 2007.

2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Link › 2AC---Link Defense

Even if house prices were inflationary, the spread of demand would lessen market pressure

Austin Mackell, 20. Freelance journalist. 12-27-20. “How a Basic Income could Lower Housing Costs.” https://austingmackell.medium.com/how-a-basic-income-could-lower-housing-costs-2b1f1bb1cc28.

One of the most common objections raised to a basic income is that house prices and rents will simply be raised and erase all the income gains, leaving people back where they started. Even if all other factors were held static it seems likely that competition between landlords and home sellers — and with those selling other asset classes — would act as something of a brake on price increases, preventing them from absorbing all of the increase in income.

But other factors won’t be held static. For a start there would be a decoupling of the labour and housing markets which would increase vendor-side competition in the housing market, since there would be a greater number of people who could quit their current job and move where housing is cheaper. This would compliment and overlap with the existing trend towards remote work. The increased spending power and arrival of new customers in country towns would then create more employment opportunities, making them even more attractive relative to the city. It would of course put upward pressure on regional house prices, but the spread of demand would lessen pressure on city markets.

2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Uniqueness › 2AC---NU---No Asset Bubble

No asset bubble for a long time

Vander Stelt, 3-29. Real Estate Agent in Northwest Indiana. 3-29-23. “45,000,000 Reasons There is No Housing Bubble in 2023.” https://quadwalls.com/blog/reasons-there-is-no-housing-bubble-in-2021/

A bubble is a term used to figuratively describe an inflating event with the perception it will burst. As an Indiana Realtor® I am here to burst your bubble: There is no housing bubble in 2023, and there won’t be one anytime soon. Just because prices are rising doesn’t mean there is a bubble.

The cottage industry of amateur economists has taken off in the wake of rapidly rising home prices starting in 2020. This surge of home prices has content creators and click-baiters flocking to YouTube, Tik-Tok, and every other low-cost platform espousing their beliefs home prices are in a bubble destined to burst and set home values back 20%, 30% or 50%.

2023 Michigan Disadvantage
AFF---Housing DA › Uniqueness › 2AC---NU---Explode now

Terminally nonunique---we’re already seeing signs of a housing bubble.

Natalie Campisi and Robin Rothstein, 5-16. Consumer finance reporters for Forbes Advisor. 5-16-23. “Will The Housing Market Crash in 2023? Experts Give 5-Year Predictions.” https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/will-housing-market-crash/

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas identified signs of a “brewing U.S. housing bubble” in a 2022 report. Though the sharp increase in home prices doesn’t indicate a bubble, the report found, there are other fundamental factors to consider. These include “shifts in disposable income, the cost of credit and access to it, supply disruptions, and rising labor and raw construction materials costs are among the economic reasons for sustained real house-price gains.”

When “there is widespread belief that today’s robust price increases will continue,” the housing market becomes unhinged from those fundamentals, the Dallas Fed report revealed. “If many buyers share this belief, purchases arising from a ‘fear of missing out’ can drive up prices and heighten expectations of strong house-price gains.”

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › Settler Colonialism Links

Claims that a UBI can act as a reparation for settler colonialism ignore Australian examples, where it silenced criticism of violence from the denial of sovereignty

Williams, 2021 - Research and Data Section, UN Women [Loui, Policy Brief No. 22 “Universal Basic Income: Potential And Limitations From A Gender Perspective” TA]

To what extent could UBI redistribute wealth and challenge structural inequalities? In the context of the United States, UBI has been proposed by some as one element of addressing racial and gender-based injustices stemming from settler-colonialism, slavery and contemporary drivers of wealth extraction from communities of colour, including through mass incarceration.31 UBI has a history of support by Black women’s grassroots movements: In the 1960s-1970s, they viewed it as providing a way out of low-status, poor-paying jobs and allowing more time to care for their children, a privilege that white middle-class women had long enjoyed.32 More recently, Black scholars have advocated for a “robust basic income that advances racial and gender justice”, in the face of pervasive structural discrimination in employment.33 In 2018, Black women employed full-time in the United States earned just 65 per cent of the income of their white male equivalents. White women earned 82 percent as much as white men, and Black men earned 73 per cent as much.34 If financed through taxation on high-income earners, UBI could potentially reach all individuals equally, but with disproportionate benefit and a redistributive effect for already-disadvantaged groups.35 However, in the context of UBI for Indigenous Australians, critics have emphasized that it “does not account for the violence, displacement of nationhood and denial of sovereignty” of Indigenous people, and there is a risk that recognition of the ongoing dispossession of Indigenous communities’ land and resources and resistance to it may be silenced or elided if UBI is seen as adequate ‘justice’ for this suffering, or if UBI governance structures reinforce the power of the state over Indigenous autonomy.36 UBI should therefore not be seen as a “technical fix” to devastating social and economic inequalities and intergenerational trauma.37 Furthermore, more research is needed to compare the redistributive potential of UBI to that of other forms of social protection, and better understand how UBI could be situated within much broader efforts to address systemic racism, challenge the root causes of income inequality, and bring about social justice.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › State CP Links

Counterplan solves the case – decentralized basic incomes will spill Up to the federal level – Medicare and Medicaid prove

Ban, 2023 – Digital Editor for the National Association of Counties [Charles Feb 13, County News “Changing lives: ARPA funds Cook County guaranteed income pilot program” TA]

A national model Other counties have funded guaranteed income programs, but as the second largest county in the country, Cook County presents a large test case that Preckwinkle sees as a national model. “It’s our hope that this program and others around the country will kind of prove the point that these kind of investments in our residents are worthwhile,” she said, noting that despite years-long lags, Medicaid was adopted nationwide and Medicaid expansion is following the same slow but steady pattern. “A lot of federal initiatives are the result of things that have percolated up from the local level,” she said. “If we can show that the folks who were participants in the program made significant progress in terms of stabilizing their lives and providing more opportunities for themselves and their children, I think the federal government ought to be doing this for everybody who’s eligible.”

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › State CP Links

State legislation for a Basic Income solves best because it better mobilizes non profit support while taking advantage of economies of scale.

Chambers et al, 2022 – prof of political science at Trinity College [Stefani, with Abby Nick and Maddie Granato, May 3 “The Benefits of Guaranteed Basic Income: Lessons from Advocates” Acc 3/23/23 TA]

NEXT STEPS & RECOMMENDATION After completing my research I have multiple recommendations for how CWEALF can become involved in the fight for GBI. To begin with, CWEALF should continue to track the progress of Pilot programs, particularly the Hartford Pilot to see how the community benefits and responds. Furthermore, I suggest partnering with other community non-profits. The majority of the pilot programs had multiple non-profits as key stakeholders. Non-profits can help gather financial aid and rally political support. Finally, I would suggest becoming involved with Mayors for Guaranteed Income. This organization alone has funded many pilot projects and serves as a national network of GBI supporters. This organization would provide endless resources to advocates. In addition, I stress the impact of a statewide approach. Although local pilots are influential in the participants’ lives, the only way that basic income can make a lasting impact on the economic poverty and income inequality in the state of Connecticut is through state legislation and larger-scale programming. Therefore I believe that CWEALF’s efforts would be best used in advocating for statewide guaranteed basic income.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › IRS Tradeoff Links

A UBI would require progressive taxes to be redistributive

Büchs, 2021 - Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds [Milena, Ecological Economics, November “Sustainable welfare: How do universal basic income and universal basic services compare?” TA]

Estimating overall distributive outcomes would need to take into account the effect of abolishing other cash benefits and the impact of UBI on real wages. Most proposals assume that a UBI would replace existing minimum income schemes. In relative terms, the removal of these schemes would reduce incomes at the bottom and middle of the distribution more than top incomes. For overall distributive effects of UBI to remain progressive, financing of the UBI would need to correct for this by putting higher burdens on rich households. Modelling by the OECD (2017) has shown that while the richest income groups would tend to be the greatest net losers from a UBI, there are some scenarios in which low to middle income groups would be the greatest net losers due to the removal of existing cash benefits. Furthermore, distributional outcomes of a UBI would depend on effects on real wages. In response to a UBI, employers might decrease wages (Zamora, 2017) because they know that people's living costs are now partly covered by the basic income. In addition, producers might increase prices in response to higher taxes on capital or profits, thus passing costs on to consumers and reducing real incomes. Impacts on wages might differ by sector. For instance, wages of unpopular, low-pay jobs may increase if workers can reduce their labour supply for such jobs due to the greater financial security they would have with the UBI (Calnitsky, 2018). Conversely, wages in higher paid sectors might fall, for instance if a UBI would lead to higher labour supply here due to the impacts of progressive income taxation. Such shifts in wages may have additional redistributive effects.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › IRS Tradeoff Links

A UBI would need to use progressive taxes to solve.

Hanna and Olken, 2018 - prof of South-East Asia Studies and prof of Economics at MIT [Rema and Benjamin, Harvard Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall “Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries” TA]

Given these challenges, some have begun to advocate for “universal basic income” programs, which dispense with trying to identify the poor and instead provide transfers to everyone. A universal basic income program is comparatively straightforward to implement—each individual receives a fixed transfer, regardless of income—so the main challenge is to ensure that each person receives the transfer only once. Although universal basic income programs distribute the same value of transfer to everyone, including the very rich, if they are financed through proportional or progressive taxation, they can still result in a substantial redistribution to the poor.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › IRS Tradeoff Links

A UBI would be funded by progressive taxes – most proposals prove that it is normal means.

Büchs, 2021 - Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds [Milena, Ecological Economics, November “Sustainable welfare: How do universal basic income and universal basic services compare?” TA]

Most proposals emphasise that UBI would need to be financed by replacing existing income support schemes and through progressive taxes. In this paper, I assume a progressive system of financing UBI which would result in a net redistribution from richer to poorer people. An analysis of the financial viability of UBI (and UBS) goes beyond the scope of the paper. Financial viability will critically depend on societies' willingness to redistribute and target resources towards UBI and UBS schemes which could become fundamental for establishing sustainable welfare systems.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › --Extend - Specification

Specifying details about a basic income is essential to determining if it works.

Aerts et al, 2023 – Centre for Social Policy University of Antwerp [Elise with Ive Marx Gerlinde Verbist February, IZA Discussion Paper No. 15952 “Not That Basic: How Level, Design and Context Matter for the Redistributive Outcomes of Universal Basic Income” TA]

7. Conclusion Taking a BI seriously as a policy option requires that we consider carefully how we could really implement it. This paper debunks the proclaimed simplicity of a BI. We show that implementing a BI is far more complicated than many people, especially BI advocates, seem to realize. Our analysis sparks three key take-away messages: 1) A Basic Income is never simple – it requires many choices. The exact specification of the BI matters a great deal. Which parts of the existing tax/benefit system are maintained? What is abolished, modified or replaced? Is a BI made taxable? Is eligibility to other benefits affected by a BI, for example through a means-test? These choices are best made with a specific purpose in mind. For a BI can serve many end goals, which may well be incompatible. 2) Those choices matter, even apparently ‘minor’ choices matter. Depending on how exactly a BI is specified, the effects may vary a lot. The level of the BI is only one choice that needs to be made. Strikingly, a higher BI will not necessarily always have “better” distributional consequences, especially if poverty reduction is the goal. But besides the amount of the BI, we have demonstrated that many other design features matter just as much. When a BI would be implemented as a wholesale replacement of existing social protection arrangements, poverty would increase without exception. Alternatively, replacing tax allowances – which tend to benefit those with higher incomes – with a BI would reduce poverty rates (as probably would be even more the case with more targeted benefits). Whether or not a BI is included in the means-test of other benefits also matters for the poverty reduction that can be achieved. Even the tax structure matters. A BI accompanied by a flat tax would for example be overall far less redistributive compared to a progressive tax. Our analysis thus highlights the importance of scheme design in developing a BI policy.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › --Extend – Immigrants

Normal means for a UBI would attack immigrants – it would exclude them from benefits and would lead to calls for more restrictive immigration policies.

Gordon, 2021 - prof of Law at Fordham [Jennifer, Feb 9, “UBI and Immigrants: Lessons from the Pandemic” Acc 6/12/23 TA]

But comparatively little thought has gone into the global perspective. Even the most progressive nation-based approach to basic income faces a fundamental justice challenge in the reality of human mobility. Almost all basic income proposals focus on the country as a unit. (Exceptions include Philippe Van Parijs and Juliana Bidadanure.) Responding to the assertion that nations with UBI programs open to all would be overrun by outsiders seeking to access the benefit, most make citizenship a prerequisite for a grant. A number also call for increased restrictions on immigration (other than of temporary laborers) in order to make such programs politically feasible. Surely advocates of such programs do not envision Qatar as their model society. And yet it is too easy to imagine a version of a Gulf state arising from a basic income initiative that provides cash support to citizens, who no longer need to take work that is unsatisfying, while denying it to noncitizens, who are brought in do the difficult and dangerous jobs that remain. Even if UBI programs include immigrants, it is far from clear that UBI is the right response to concerns about the future of work. The extent of automation and the reconfiguration of traditional employment are policy choices, not inevitabilities, and a critical question is how the exercise of countervailing power by workers and of the regulatory state might result in different outcomes than the replacement of work as we know it with a cash transfer program. Nonetheless, especially in communities and countries where a majority of people are already under- and un-employed, a more universal vision of universal basic income is a demand worth making. On this front, cash transfer programs created in response to Covid-19 may have some insight to offer. In the United States, many of the state and federal government Covid benefit programs restricted access by immigration status. Their implementation illustrated the problems with an exclusionary approach. A few state and local initiatives, however, broke new ground in their incorporation of undocumented people. These suggest pathways to a reconstruction of UBI as an immigrant-inclusive intervention. Among U.S. pandemic relief programs, the federal CARES Act was closest to a traditional UBI proposal. It authorized a one-time payment from the government of $1200 to each adult and $500 to each child, which resembled UBI in being non-needs-based and no-strings-attached. It had something else in common with UBI as well: it excluded all undocumented people and many other noncitizens, as well as the citizen children of undocumented parents and citizens with undocumented spouses. (The exclusion of some citizens in mixed-status households was rectified in a new relief bill passed by Congress in late 2020, but others—including citizen children with two undocumented parents—remain outside the program, as do all undocumented individuals.)

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › 1NC – Solvency Resps

The affirmative must specify the details for implementing their UBI – there are many different ways to implement a UBI – these differences will determine if a UBI solves or makes poverty worse.

Aerts et al, 2023 – Centre for Social Policy University of Antwerp [Elise with Ive Marx Gerlinde Verbist February, IZA Discussion Paper No. 15952 “Not That Basic: How Level, Design and Context Matter for the Redistributive Outcomes of Universal Basic Income” TA]

Proponents of a basic income (BI) claim that it could bring significant reductions in financial poverty, on top of many other benefits, including greatly reduced administrative complexity and cost. Using microsimulation analysis in a comparative two-country setting, we show that the potential poverty-reducing impact of BI strongly depends on exactly how and where it is implemented. Implementing a BI requires far more choices than advocates seem to realize. The level at which the BI is set matters, but its exact specification matters even more. Which parts of the existing tax-benefit system are maintained, and which parts are abolished, modified or replaced? The impact of a BI, be it a low or a high one, thus strongly depends on the characteristics of the system that it is (partially) replacing or complementing, as well as the socio-economic context in which it is introduced. Some versions of BI could potentially help to reduce poverty but always at a significant cost and with substantial sections of the population incurring significant losses, which matters for political feasibility. A partial basic income complementing existing provisions appears to make more potential sense than a full basic income replacing them. The simplicity of BI, however, tends to be vastly overstated. 1. Introduction As poverty persists in advanced welfare states some are advocating a radical change in approach. Long dismissed as utopian, a basic income (BI) as a potentially ironclad protection against financial poverty has gained more and more traction. This paper examines what would happen if we introduced various versions of a BI in Belgium and the Netherlands, ranging from a modest one complementing most existing provisions to a generous one replacing many existing provisions. Could a BI reduce or even eliminate poverty in both countries? What would a BI do for the people who are financially worst off? Who would gain and who would lose? Using sophisticated microsimulation analysis, we examine in detail a range of BI schemes and compare their potential impact in Belgium and the Netherlands, countries that share some important characteristics but also differ significantly in some other respects, notably their tax benefit systems and labour market institutions. This analysis is relevant to basic income debates worldwide. It is also relevant for debates on the potential harmonisation of social protection across EU member states. In contrast to common claims, it is not simply the case that the higher the BI the “better” the distributional consequences are, especially if income inequality and poverty reduction are goals. A low, “partial” BI may make more sense than a fully-fledged one that replaces most of what exists. The exact specification of a BI matters a lot. Which parts of the existing tax-benefit system are maintained, and which parts are abolished, modified or replaced? Is a BI made taxable? Are amounts of other benefits affected by the BI? Such issues hardly feature in many BI debates but they are in fact of the uttermost importance for outcomes, as we will show. Context matters too. The impact of a BI, be it a low or a high one, depends on the characteristics of the existing system that is (partially) replacing or complementing. Likewise, the structure and workings of the labour market matter. Whether or not many people work, and in what kind of jobs they work matters. This, again, is a point that is often overlooked in BI debates where it is often assumed that the impact would be rather similar across countries, existing systems and settings. That is not the case at all. This paper shows that implementing a BI is far more complicated than many people, especially BI advocates, seem to realize. Moreover, its impact depends strongly on exactly how it is implemented and where.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › 1NC – Solvency Resps

A UBI large enough to solve is impossible – it would require a change in political power relations. Existing government officials will implement a UBI by making sure it is too small and cutting existing programs.

Zamora, 2017 - postdoctoral sociologist at the Université Libre de Bruxelles [Daniel, December, Jacobin “The Case Against a Basic Income” Translated by Jeff Bate Boerop, TA]

No existing economy can pay for a generous basic income without defunding everything else. We would either have to settle for the minimalist version — whose effects would be highly suspect — or we’d have to eliminate all other social expenditures, in effect creating Milton Friedman’s paradise. Faced with these facts, we should question UBI’s rationality; as Luke Martinelli put it: “an affordable UBI is inadequate, and an adequate UBI is unaffordable.” Until we profoundly transform our economies, we can’t implement a measure that would cost more than 35 percent of GDP in economies where the state already spends around 50 percent of GDP. The power relations needed to establish this level of UBI would constitute an exit from capitalism, pure and simple, rendering depictions of UBI as a “means” of social transformation nonsense. Indeed, many defenses of basic income can be classified as what Raymond Geuss called “nonrealist political philosophy”: ideas formulated in complete abstraction from the existing world and real people, completely “disjoined from real politics” — like the Rawlsian model of justice that serves as an important inspiration to figures like Philippe Van Parijs. If UBI does take shape, current power relations will favor those who have economic power and want to profit by weakening the existing system of social protection and labor market regulations. Who will decide the monthly amount and who will dictate its terms and condition? Who do today’s power relations favor? Certainly not the worker.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › 1NC – Solvency Resps

Right wing pressure will push a basic income to reinforce nativist exclusion and slash other social programs.

Battastoni, 2017 - PhD candidate in political science at Yale [Alyssa, Spring Dissent, “The False Promise of Universal Basic Income” TA]

The right-wing version of basic income, by contrast, wherein paltry lumps of cash replace public services and goods, is a UBI not worth having. This version of basic income is a mechanism to streamline—a more accurate word might be “gut”—the welfare state in the name of libertarian ideas of freedom. People know what they need better than the state does, the argument goes; how people will be able to afford healthcare on $12,000 a year is less often addressed. Who exactly should get a basic income is another question. It’s sometimes called a “citizen’s dividend,” explicitly limiting recipients by nationality. More generally the “universal” is aspirational: basic income programs have only seriously been proposed at the national or local levels. So, as with other welfare programs, debates over basic income will undoubtedly be bound up with questions about nationality and migration. In the European context, we should be wary of the deployment of basic income to solidify Fortress Europe as the refugee crisis intensifies. In the debates over the Swiss program, for example, Luzi Stamm, a member of parliament for the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, said he could imagine supporting UBI—but only for the Swiss. “Theoretically, if Switzerland were an island, the answer is yes,” he said at the time. “But with open borders, it’s a total impossibility, especially for Switzerland, with a high living standard.” In the United States, meanwhile, the combination of nativism and libertarianism that makes up the Trump coalition is particularly dangerous: it’s hard to imagine any way a basic income program implemented in the Trump era would be anything but a vehicle for dismantling the remains of the welfare state while simultaneously reinforcing nationalism by excluding non-citizens from shared prosperity. That said, basic income doesn’t seem likely to be on the agenda of the Trump administration anytime soon. Instead of inventing the future, Trump’s move is to borrow from the past via boondoggles like the Carrier deal, which give public money to private companies in an attempt to revive a mid-century imaginary where men had real factory jobs. Welfare programs, meanwhile, are likely to come under renewed attack from a Republican administration ready to slash government spending.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › 1NC – Solvency Resps

There is no guarantee that a Basic Income will be sufficient because there is no consistent definition

Mohan et al, 2021 - Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability [Chiba, with Jiaqi Yang, Supriya Pipil, and Kensuke Fukushi, 24 March Journal of Social and Economic Development “Review on basic income (BI): its theories and empirical cases” TA]

Compared with others, sufficiency is a relatively controversial attribute relevant to the BI level that should be given to each recipient. There are mainly two types of interpretation identified in the literature. The first type insists that BI should be set at a level high enough to cover one’s basic needs (Bill 1988; Baker 1992; McKay 2001; Pettit 2008) when he/she faces jobs and wage insecurity (Altman and Klein2018). The second type considers that the amount of BI is not necessarily fixed at a subsistence level and can both exceed and fall short of that level in a given society (De Wispelaere and Stirton 2004; Achterberg 2002; Van Parijs 1992,2004). Some scholars differentiate between so-called full BI and partial BI (PBI) depending on whether the exact amount of BI is given at more or less than a socially agreed adequate level (Clark and Kavanagh 1996; Widerquist et al. 2013). Criteria for determining an explicit level of BI in a society are considered arbitrary (De Wispelaere and Stirton 2004). Cruz-Saco (2002) reckons legitimate claims are required in setting the level of BI as the conception of the good life or one’s idea of occupation vary among people.

2023 Michigan Negative
UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME NEG › Advantage Responses › --Extend – Collective Bargaining

A basic income would reduce collective bargaining rights and minimum wages, which are more important to helping workers than a basic income.

Rogers, 2017 – prof of Law at Temple University [Brishen, May 3, Boston Review “Basic Income in a Just Society” https://www.bostonreview.net/forum/brishen-rogers-basic-income-just-society/ Acc 1/28/23 TA]

This account changes the case for a basic income. Many of today’s basic income proponents are libertarians and view the policy as a means of compensating losers, or as an excuse to repeal wage per hour or collective bargaining laws. Few are concerned about public goods, workers’ and capital owners’ entitlements within the firm, the power of various social groups, the ability of workers to organize collectively, and the question of what constitutes good work, not just jobs. An alternative case for basic income draws from classic commitments to social democracy, or an economic system in which the state limits corporate power, ensures a decent standard of living for all, and encourages decent work. In the social democratic view, however, a basic income would be only part of the solution to economic and social inequalities—we also need a revamped public sector and a new and different collective bargaining system. Indeed, without such broader reforms, a basic income could do more harm than good. This agenda will of course make zero progress during the Trump administration. But questions surrounding work and rising inequality are not going away. After all, Trump exploited fears of a jobless or insecure future in his campaign, signaling a return to our industrial heyday, with good-paying factory jobs implicitly promised to whites, men, and Christians. On the left, meanwhile, there is grassroots energy and momentum to think big and to address these issues head on, in all their complexity. But we still need a vision of good work and its place in our society, one that recognizes how our economy—and our working class—have changed dramatically in recent decades. I do not think for a moment that I have all the answers. But I do think an ambitious agenda around technology, work, and welfare can be a focal point and political resource for organizers, and perhaps even candidates, in the years to come. Consider the life of a truck driver forty years ago versus today. In 1976 long-haul truck drivers had a powerful, if flawed, union in the Teamsters and enjoyed middle-class wages and excellent benefits. They also had a remarkable degree of autonomy, giving the job a cowboy or outlaw image. Drivers had to track their hours carefully, of course, and submit to weigh stations and other inspections of their trucks. But dispatchers could not reach them while they were on the road, since CB radios have limited range. Truckers would call in from pay phones, if they wanted. No longer. Trucking companies today monitor drivers closely through “telematics” devices that gather and analyze data on their location, driving speed, and delivery efficiency. Some even note when a driver turns the truck on before fastening his seat belt, thereby wasting gas. As sociologist Karen Levy has shown, some long-haul trucking companies use telematics to push drivers to drive for all the hours permitted per day under federal law, at times waking them up or even overriding drivers’ own judgments about whether it is safe to drive. UPS has used the technologies to reduce its stock of drivers, and many have noted the stress that “metrics-based harassment” puts on workers. We need a revamped public sector and a new and different collective bargaining system. While the specter of self-driving vehicles is out there, this is the current reality for many drivers and will be for the foreseeable future. We have seen stunning advances in autonomous vehicles in recent years, but there is a vast difference between driving on a highway or broad suburban streets in good weather conditions and navigating narrow and pothole-filled city streets, not to mention making the actual delivery to houses, apartments, and businesses. As labor economist David Autor and others have argued, we are nowhere close to fully automated production or distribution of goods, since so many jobs involve nonrepetitive tasks. In other words, the reports of the death of work have been greatly exaggerated. Technological development is nevertheless altering the political economy of labor markets in profound ways. As we can see in the truck driver example, many firms are deploying information technologies to erode workers’ conditions and bargaining power without displacing them. And of course truck drivers are not alone. Many other firms today use advanced information technologies to push for more efficiency, in the process reducing workers’ discretion, ultimately requiring them to work harder, faster, and for less. For example, where once taxi drivers’ folk knowledge of the optimal path from A to B in a crowded city was a valuable skill, now Uber and Lyft can calculate the best route through GPS technology and machine learning processes based on data gleaned from hundreds of thousands of trips. Other technological innovations make it easier—which is to say more efficient—to purchase labor without entering formal employment relationships and accepting the attendant legal duties. In the past firms tended to employ workers rather than contractors, or to pay employees above-market wages, in scenarios where it was difficult to train or monitor them. Workers who felt valued in this way would work diligently and remain loyal toward firms, ultimately reducing overall labor costs. Again Uber’s model helps illustrate. The company’s app reduces consumers’ and drivers’ search costs significantly. Rapid scalability reduces Uber’s costs of identifying and contracting with new drivers and riders; its GPS-based monitoring of its drivers enables it to know whether they are speeding or otherwise driving carelessly and whether they are accepting a sufficient number of fares; and its customer rating system enables it to manage an enormous workforce without managerial supervision. The net result is an economic organization of global scope based largely on contract where the firm disclaims any employment relationship toward its workers and therefore any employment duties toward them. To be clear, there are powerful arguments that Uber drivers meet the legal test for employment, given the company’s pervasive control of their work and its economic power over them. But given the ambiguities of current law, Uber has few economic incentives to bring drivers inside the firm, making them employees, or to extend them generous wage and benefit packages. Similarly Amazon’s analytics help it to keep wages low: with barcode scanners tracking pickers’ and packers’ efficiency, the company does not have to pay workers as well to keep them motivated. Finally, extensive data about market structures and consumer demand can enable firms to exert power over their suppliers or contractual partners, driving down costs—and therefore wages and conditions—through their supply chains. Walmart has long leveraged its unparalleled market data to estimate the lowest possible price suppliers will accept for goods, putting downward pressure on their profits and their workers’ wages. Amazon does the same today, and franchisors such as McDonald’s set prices and detailed product specifications for their franchisees. The reports of the death of work have been greatly exaggerated. Many firms today have substituted algorithmic scheduling for middle-managers’ local knowledge, using data on past sales, local events, and even weather forecasts to schedule work shifts. A Starbucks employee, for example, has little schedule predictability since she is at the mercy of the algorithm, and a McDonald’s worker can be sent home early if computers say sales are slow. This push to limit labor costs through finely tuned scheduling practices also alters workplace norms, since workers cannot appeal to a computer’s emotions in asking for more or less time, a raise, or a slower pace of work. The net effect of all of this is that power in our labor and product markets is increasingly concentrated in a few hands. Crucially such management techniques and new production strategies are often more efficient than the status quo. Amazon has undeniably lowered prices for goods through its use of automation. Similarly a recent MIT study calculated that just three thousand multi-passenger cabs using a version of Uber’s algorithm could serve Manhattan’s need for taxis. The potential benefits here are staggering, especially if coupled with a modern mass transit system: shorter commutes, less car ownership, less pollution, and more urban space. But the line between innovation and exploitation is far from clear. While some workers will thrive as their unique skills and talents are rewarded by new technologies, many others will have less autonomy, less generous wages, less time for social connection, and unpredictable schedules. And under current laws, we can expect such trends to accelerate. Our labor and employment laws still envision the economy of the 1930s, which was dominated by massive industrial firms with hundreds of thousands of direct employees. Those laws rarely touch modern “fissured” work relationships such as Uber’s relationship with its drivers, Walmart’s relationship with its suppliers’ workers, or McDonald’s relationship with its franchisees’ workers. Those laws also limit workers’ ability to unionize or bargain effectively since they encourage bargaining at the firm or even plant level whereas today’s modal workplace is growing ever smaller. Workers have fewer and fewer means to exert power on their own behalf. How would a basic income impact workers and firms in this context? It would surely protect workers against the economic harms of unemployment and underemployment by giving them unconditional resources, and it would enable them to bargain for higher wages and to refuse terrible jobs. But a basic income would do little to reduce corporate power, which is a function not just of wealth but of the ability of firms to structure work relationships however they wish when countervailing institutions—such as a powerful regulatory state—are absent or ineffective. Yes, a basic income would make it easier for workers to organize and demand reforms—Andy Stern dubbed it “the ultimate permanent strike fund”—but the threat of termination or retaliation would still prevent many workers from protesting or striking in the first place. And of course many have argued that a basic income would make minimum wage and collective bargaining laws less necessary, since workers’ material needs would be met by the state. But cash benefits and reasonable wages are not morally equivalent. In Robert Solow’s memorable phrase, the labor market is a “social institution” governed in part by norms of reciprocity and mutual respect. Workers often demand higher wages from larger and more profitable employers. And they work less diligently when they feel disrespected. So there is a major difference between a generous wage on the one hand and a meager wage supplemented with cash from the state on the other. Generous wages help make firms’ economic responsibility roughly commensurate with their economic power. Meager wages signal disrespect, and state transfers are impersonal. In fact, without labor market regulations in place, the impact of a basic income on very low-wage work could be disastrous. If a basic income were not extended to green card holders, guest workers, or “irregular” immigrants (those who enter or stay without authorization), such workers would be far cheaper to employ in menial jobs, at which point they would be permanently enshrined as a laboring underclass. (Currently minimum wage laws apply regardless of work authorization, on the grounds that differential treatment would undermine standards for all.) A basic income could even be designed to serve white nationalist ends. In fact, far-right European parties have often embraced the welfare state as a means of defending citizens against a purported tide of immigrants. A standalone basic income also will not ensure equal access to quality education, health care, mental health care, housing, and transportation. Liberal markets systematically fail to provide such goods to the poor and working class, for the simple reason that they often are not profitable when provided on equitable terms. Giving cash to individuals to purchase them will not suddenly change matters. Popular debates have largely ignored these limits of a standalone basic income, an oversight that is not entirely accidental. As a tax-and-transfer program, basic income would be consistent with a wide variety of political-economic systems, including neoliberal capitalism, social democracy, and various forms of socialism, but much of the basic income literature has a libertarian streak. On the right, Milton Friedman proposed a negative income tax in large part because he hoped it would reduce government bureaucracy. On the left, Philippe van Parijs’s now-classic argument for the policy held it would maximize what he called “real freedom” better than standard welfare-state policies. And Silicon Valley’s take exemplifies an “everyday libertarianism,” which views market results, including pre-tax incomes, as presumptively fair. Unlike many libertarians, basic income proponents accept the necessity and fairness of income and wealth taxation. But a basic income is still no cure for the moral ills of liberal markets. Since labor cannot be separated from workers, it will never be a classic commodity, and labor markets will never be stock exchanges for faceless buyers and sellers. Low wages carry a stigma that low bids for soybeans never will. In the long run, companies cannot treat workers or even consumers as line items on a balance sheet without risking a revolt. Uber is now paying a high price for ignoring this lesson. The company’s flagrant disregard for our moral economy and its open embrace of a cutthroat, winner-take-all libertarianism made it a pariah in many quarters well before it faced allegations of a workplace culture of sexual harassment. In my view, the more compelling arguments for basic income are rooted in commitments to equality as well as freedom. Take Thomas Paine’s Agrarian Justice (1797), which prefigured the later case for social insurance. The earth, he argued, had been “the common property of the human race” in its natural state. Private property enabled the few to profit from the earth’s resources, but all are entitled to compensation through a “citizens dividend.” G. D. H. Cole updated Paine in the twentieth century, arguing for a “social dividend” on the grounds that all production is “a joint result of current effort and of the social heritage of inventiveness.” Auto manufacturers did not discover electricity, after all, and Silicon Valley did not invent the Internet. Rather than a means of maximizing freedom, a basic income would help meet our duties toward one another. Workers cannot appeal to a computer’s emotions in asking for more or less time, a raise, or a slower pace of work. A still more compelling case for basic income builds on Elizabeth Anderson’s and Philip Pettit’s (quite distinct) arguments that a just society must ensure that no group of citizens is subordinate to another. Extreme poverty causes subordination since it forces us to beg or to work at terrible jobs. Means tests are equally degrading since food stamps and similar programs tend to restrict what we can buy, again stigmatizing the poor. This argument is quite different from the libertarian case for a basic income since it does not view basic income as a replacement for the welfare state. Rather it asks basic income to serve a discrete and limited purpose: making sure nobody falls through the cracks. And if one agrees that we need to root out subordination, we will need to do much more than pass a basic income. A just society would not just eliminate penury and then leave people to their fates. It would also strive for a fair distribution of power. This point strikes me as obvious, but we can miss it by focusing on unemployment and poverty. A society in which a few make decisions and the many take orders is an oligarchy, not a democracy. This is what I mean by the “social democratic” case for a basic income: it would help build a post-industrial welfare state by alleviating dire poverty. But it is unlikely to pass and would do little good unless coupled with other efforts to ensure broadly dispersed power, including a substantially revamped public sector and new and stronger regulations around work. The public sector agenda should begin with a massive investment in human services. This would include primary, secondary, and higher education; childcare and elder care; health care; and mental health services. All of these are critical to human flourishing and economic growth, especially in a technologically advanced economy. There is also the added benefit that these sectors are among the least vulnerable to automation since they require interpersonal communication and human judgment: turning them into basic rights of citizenship would create millions of jobs. Extensive job training and placement programs for unemployed workers would reduce the devastations associated with job losses. This should be coupled with a guarantee that the government will stand as employer of last resort, as William Darity and Darrick Hamilton have advocated. Classic WPA-style public works would be one option, but we might do more good by thinking locally: retrofitting houses and other smaller buildings for energy efficiency, as john a. powell and others have suggested, or building and repairing local parks and schools, or training unemployed workers for jobs in childcare, education, elder care, or health care. Some subset of the projects could be identified through participatory budgeting or other deliberative processes and carried out in partnership with local governments or organizations. Then we should consider unconditional cash benefits in some form, ideally a generous basic income, especially if technological unemployment becomes significant. But we need to design it correctly. If certain immigrants are denied a basic income, then we must establish a transparent pathway to citizenship and ensure that they enjoy generous wages. Currently many states restrict convicted felons from voting or collecting many public benefits. If that pattern holds with a basic income, that group could also become a pool of menial labor. Paying for all of this would not be easy, of course, which is why it may make sense to take baby steps. Unconditional cash grants to parents, for instance, would go a long way toward alleviating poverty and would be less politically controversial than unconditional benefits for the able-bodied and childless. Or perhaps a participation income, in which citizens would be entitled to cash benefits on the basis of some qualified civic service each year, though this would be less desirable than a public jobs guarantee combined with other generous benefits. As we wait for the politics to catch up with the policy, however, the “baby steps” approach can inch us closer to meeting social needs, developing a highly trained workforce and rebuilding faith in the public sector. Then there are the near-intractable problems of improving private sector work and limiting corporate power. Of course what makes work “good” is hard to define, in part because it is so dependent on social context and individuals’ preferences. We look back fondly on the industrial era in part because manufacturing jobs delivered high wages and benefits, but those jobs only became “good” after workers organized and forced firms to raise wages and reduce hours. Manufacturing jobs were also physically and emotionally punishing, and factory workers’ pride was often based on a perverse ethic of masculine suffering. It is easier to say what bad work is. There is certainly no shortage of it these days: many workers earn low pay, have long or unpredictable hours, and are vulnerable to arbitrary treatment. Raising the minimum wage and reducing the standard workweek to thirty-five or even thirty hours would help. So would the public investments in human services discussed above, since those new jobs would require significant judgment (ensuring a degree of worker autonomy) and current law extends many democratic norms to the public sector already. A public jobs guarantee would give workers the security of knowing that an alternative always exists if a private-sector job proves unendurable. The centerpiece of reform efforts should be the encouragement of collective bargaining between workers, their employers, and whatever other firms enjoy economic power over them. That will require reforms to bring our labor laws into sync with the reality of what work now looks like. Rather than requiring workers to organize shop by shop, we could encourage bargaining at the corporate level, such that all McDonald’s workers, for example, would be in one bargaining unit, regardless of whether their restaurants are franchises or owned by the parent corporation. Better still, we could put all fast food workers nationwide in one bargaining unit empowered to negotiate with an association of fast food companies. Similarly workers could be granted bargaining rights with the firms at the top of their respective supply chains: Uber drivers would have bargaining rights vis-à-vis Uber, and Walmart and Target would have duties toward the workers who produce, process, and move goods to their shelves, including production workers, warehouse workers, farm workers, janitors, and many others. Without labor market regulations, the impact of a basic income on low-wage work could be disastrous.