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The post-World War II global order, which was set up to defy the Soviet Union, has changed and the era of American neo-isolationism begun. Fortunately, the United States has the necessary tools to cross over to this era, mainly its geography, maritime supremacy, and industrial capacity. However, other nations are vulnerable to American isolationism, particularly those which depend on the U.S. for maritime security and technological advancement. With only days left until the 2020 presidential election, both parties in the U.S. are headed into a new approach and they both share a deep concern about dependence on China’s manufacturing goods. This means that regardless of the outcome of the election, there will be a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy toward China, and the global pandemic only sped up the inevitability of this shift.

India, Japan, and Australia have enormous interest in participating in a dialogue with the U.S. to counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. This was apparent in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or “Quad” with the United States. While the U.S. is the only country to recognize China as an “adversary” in its National Security Strategy, the resurrection of the Quad confirms the other participants’ changing stances. Even Russia, eager to raise its geopolitical profile in South Asia and to lead Eurasian affairs, senses that it should prevent China from taking over the Eurasia region, as it balances a tenuous relationship between India and China.

Since my initial rundown of the debt ceiling deal was published, we got the actual text of the agreement. Let’s go through a few particulars that are new:

TANF changes are really a five-state pilot. Most states are not going to be affected. There is a “small checks” scheme where states get families eligible for TANF using their own expenditures. That faces a crackdown, but not until 2025.

This time of year, Congress is usually busy marking up the annual National Defense Authorization Act and mapping out the defense budget for the next fiscal year. However, just as the House Armed Services Committee was to begin work on the 2024 NDAA, Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., pumped the brakes.

The entirety of his May 9 statement on the pause read:

These cuts also come at a time when our military is facing growing global challenges. The Wall Street Journal editorial board summed up the threat environment: “China is building a world-class military to drive America out of the Pacific. Russia is committed to grinding down Ukraine and then moving its military to the Polish border; Iran may soon have a nuclear bomb; North Korea is lobbing missiles toward Japan. Hypersonics and missiles threaten the U.S. homeland.”

The latest assessment from the combatant command in charge of the Indo-Pacific region documents its need for $15.4 billion in fiscal year 2024 to address the growing challenge from China.

With his right flank in open revolt and keeping a stranglehold on the House floor, Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces two unappealing choices for how to govern.

He can cater to the demands of hard-right members of his conference, pushing through bills that will face a bipartisan legislative buzz saw in the Senate. Or he can steer around them on crucial issues, teaming up with Democrats to pass spending bills and other vital measures, and contend with constant threats to his job from his own party — if not outright removal.

Whether McCarthy can manage the opposing factions of his party — and indeed, if he can keep his tenuous grip on the speakership — is unclear. That will have significant consequences in the long term if the pattern of obstruction continues, particularly when it comes to funding the government and avoiding a shutdown in the fall.

“I’ve got serious concerns as we go into the appropriations process about how antics like this taking down a rule can impact the ability for us to do our basic job of funding the government,” Womack told the New York Times Wednesday. “It was already going to be a pretty heavy lift, but it is a lift that is going to be made heavier if this is what we are going to be facing.”

In turn, a handful of House conservatives are offering McCarthy something more heated: threats to leverage a parliamentary weapon—reinforced by the speaker himself in order to secure the gavel—to force a vote on booting him from the gig he’d fought so hard to secure.

For now, few in the House Republican Conference are taking those threats all that seriously. The conservatives most upset with McCarthy are the same bunch who swore they were “Never Kevin” during the speakership battle in January, before they ultimately cleared a path for him after 15 excruciating rounds of voting.

Meanwhile, conservatives have thrown down the gauntlet – if McCarthy doesn’t keep his word and hold out for the spending cuts he previewed, he might very well face a motion to vacate the Speaker’s chair. And with Democrats likely voting with the conservatives to oust him, California Kevin could be in real trouble unless he holds the line (and doesn’t go begging for Democrat support to pass some “compromise” that satisfies no one) on appropriations.

McCarthy could conceivably cut a deal with a few Democrats to retain his position, but then he’d be in real peril. Former House GOP leaders John Boehner and Paul Ryan ended up resigning because they forged too many pacts with Democrats to provide the appearance of “getting things done,” or “legislating”.

Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) became House speaker partly by empowering skeptical conservatives to force a no-confidence vote if he ever betrayed them.

Last week, McCarthy betrayed them, but so far the hard-liners haven’t moved to take McCarthy’s gavel away. Instead, on Tuesday a group of 10 Republicans voted against a procedural resolution setting up a series of votes on symbolic bills about gas stoves and regulations.

If there was a theme for Kevin McCarthy’s jampacked first five months as speaker, it would be this: You only live once.

In April, he followed in the footsteps of his political idol, fellow California Republican Ronald Reagan, delivering a major address on Wall Street. Then he hosted Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen at Reagan’s presidential library, infuriating Beijing. Last month, McCarthy met King Abdullah II in Jordan, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and Pope Francis at the Vatican.

Facing fresh threats of being ousted from the right, McCarthy has filled up his calendar and capitalized on every moment as speaker as the Washington establishment openly speculates how long he can hang on.

“I don’t think he knows when it’s going to happen,” said one House Republican lawmaker who supported McCarthy for speaker, “but he’s planning just like it’s going to happen tomorrow.”

Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House, has a tendency to liken himself to Babe Ruth, the American baseball legend. In a speech at the New York Stock Exchange last month, he quoted the sports hero, saying: “You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.”

McCarthy, 58, made history in January when it took 15 rounds of voting in a tortuous week of wrangling with his Republican colleagues to elect him Speaker.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) collaboration with Democrats to bypass Republicans on a debt deal vote could trigger a motion to vacate.

Gaetz told Newsmax that if McCarthy were to use Democrats to pass legislation most Republicans are against, it would constitute a violation of the deal that made him speaker and could lead to his ouster.

The effort to expel Mr Santos was always going to be a heavy lift. For one, progressive members like Reps Robert Garcia (D - California), Daniel Goldman (D - New York) and Ritchie Torres (D - New York) led the effort. Teaming up with left-wing Democrats, especially when Republicans are in the majority and they forced the vote, does not appeal to many Republicans.

Second, Mr McCarthy’s speakership is perpetually on thin ice and he needs every vote to maintain his gavel, especially as he engages in tense negotiations with the White House on the debt limit. Many conservative Republicans will likely scoff at any final agreement Mr McCarthy makes with the Biden administration, so he will need every other Republican (and some Democrats) to pass a final debt limit deal.

The morning after it was announced that President Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal to avoid a catastrophic debt default, McCarthy began almost immediately misrepresenting the terms of the deal.

McCarthy's speakership - which took a historic 15 votes to achieve - is on thin ice, and any perception by his caucus that he compromised with Biden and the Democrats - a mortal sin in GOP World - could result in his being voted out as Speaker by his own colleagues.

Back in January, when he was forced to dole out gifts and dangle committee assignments to the 21 Republicans blocking his path to the House Speakership, Kevin McCarthy looked as if he had traded real power for a lofty title. McCarthy, after all, eventually won the gavel, but only after handing his opponents a giant red detonation trigger known as the Motion to Vacate clause—a procedural move that would allow any aggrieved conference member to initiate a vote of no confidence. As I reported at the time, and in the months since, McCarthy had essentially made himself a hostage of the far-right—the Taliban 20, as the insurgent group was called—a potentially untenable situation that seemed doomed to unravel as soon as McCarthy faced a real test, such as negotiating a deal to raise the debt ceiling.

And yet, surprisingly, over the past week or so, McCarthy succinctly neutered his opposition, winning over former enemies and passing a remarkably moderate, down-the-middle spending bill with an overwhelming majority of both Republicans and Democrats. Jim Jordan, the McCarthy rival who was supported by the 20 for the speakership, whipped support for the bill. Thomas Massie, a libertarian debt-clock obsessive who could have spiked the deal, waved it through committee. Even Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the most far-right members of the caucus, has become an unlikely ally: “Republicans have huge wins in this fight,” she tweeted on Wednesday, celebrating the package.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had a couple words this week for insurgent members considering ousting him over his debt limit deal with President Joe Biden: “Bring it.”

It’s not clear they will: One member of the House Freedom Caucus told The Dispatch the group will probably discuss internally next week whether to file a motion to vacate the chair—a tool to force a vote on removing McCarthy as speaker. But only a couple members of the group have indicated they might support a move against McCarthy, and others have openly opposed the idea (and some Democrats might be even willing to help McCarthy remain in power).

He got President Biden to negotiate. And then he got a deal. Now, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is in the final phase of his debt ceiling saga: whipping up enough support for the bill in the House GOP conference to secure his political future.

Basic political wisdom dictates that McCarthy needs a majority of House Republicans to support the bill in order to maintain his political power, and McCarthy has repeatedly said that he will meet that standard. He knows he’ll need Democratic help to pass the measure, but the more GOP members that vote with him, the better for the Speaker.

While there is a clear political hit for McCarthy in securing the debt limit deal, the deal may still end up costing him less than many anticipated. After he won the speakership, conventional wisdom held that the necessity of avoiding a default would strip him of the gavel as unceremoniously as he’d won it.

With only a slim minority of the GOP’s right flank suggesting McCarthy should lose the gig, the speaker’s allies insisted his standing in the conference had not—and would not—take any real hit.

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives approved the debt ceiling deal negotiated by President Biden and Speaker McCarthy by 314 votes to 117, in a move that could prevent the U.S. from defaulting on its debts for the first time in history.

The passage of the bill demonstrates just how influential McCarthy has become, since being elected as speaker in January, with one leading political scientist calling it a "big win" for the California Republican.