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Pure independents – those who do not identify closely with either party – are another matter. Although relatively small in number, pure independents are distinctive in ways that pose real challenges to campaigns seeking their support.

Perhaps most importantly, pure independent voters are simply less likely to vote than those who express any degree of partisan attachment. In the 2020 presidential election, reported turnout among pure independents was about 20 percentage points lower than turnout among other voters, including independents who lean toward a party.

In this era of extreme partisanship, the people who express the most negativity in their political choices are those we may least expect: independents.

In a new paper, researchers conducted five studies in which they found that independents were more likely than partisans to frame their position in terms of opposition to one party, candidate, message or option rather than in support of the other choice.

The percentage of Americans identifying as independent in Gallup polling has, by one measure, remained steady over the past few years. In January and February 2021, Gallup’s measure had 50 percent of respondents saying that they were independent; in the organization’s most recent release, it’s at 49 percent.

In fairness, that January-February 2021 figure was an outlier. Earlier in January, the percentage was 45 percent; by mid-February, it was 41 percent. But despite such unsurprising fluctuations in the figures, the percentage did mark a well-established pattern: Americans are more likely than they used to be to call themselves independents.

If, however, people who say they are independent do have some preference for one party over the other, then they are not "up for grabs." Once people form a preference for one party, it becomes notoriously difficult to persuade them otherwise. In fact, people’s preference for one party over the other can lead them to dismiss messages from the opposing party no matter how compelling or well-thought out these messages may be. If Americans are merely hiding their party preferences beneath the label "independent," it is unlikely that they are open to being swayed by the party with the most convincing agenda.

As a result, even if the majority of people calling themselves independent voted for a particular candidate, it is difficult to conclude that this was due to the fact that this candidate’s message resonated with independent voters. Rather, it is possible that more independents voted for that candidate because independents were members of that candidate’s party all along.

President Barack Obama won a second term by taking the majority of swing states. But a closer look at exit polling data shows Obama lost the independent vote in most of those states over the last four years. Independents, who do not align with one political party or another, make up a fast-growing and coveted voting bloc.

A new infographic from marketing technology company Cognitive Match shows Obama garnered less of the independent vote in 2012 than 2008 in eight of the nine battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Every presidential election season, the breathless questions start from the get-go: What do independents think? Who will they likely support? Will they turn out? Pundits paint a picture of an important, distinct, yet elusive set of voters critical to determining who takes the White House. Unlike partisans, these voters are hard to pin down. They are special.

Independents are deeply interesting to academics like us. However, one of the best ways to annoy a political scientist is to call an independent special. Here’s why: In survey after survey, political scientists find that independents have political preferences that are largely identical to those of their partisan counterparts.

America’s largest, fastest-growing political party isn’t led by Joe Biden or Donald Trump. It’s the Independent Party. At least, that was one of the biggest takeaways from a Gallup poll this spring. It found that 49 percent of Americans—roughly the same amount as the number of voters who identify as Democrats and Republicans combined—think of themselves as “independents.” (An identical poll a month later found slightly less eye-catching numbers.) That’s a huge jump from just 20 years ago, when less than a third of respondents identified that way.

But what’s going on behind those numbers? Many in the political press jumped on them as the latest evidence of partisanship’s negative effects. “We spend our days captivated by people with the most power and the biggest mouths,” wrote Axios founder Mike Allen in April. “But it turns out a rising number of Americans want something else—political independence.”

In 2022, Michigan became one of the first states to pass a measure guaranteeing the right to an abortion in the state constitution following the right-wing U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.

It was a resounding victory, as Proposal 3 ran stronger than any Democrat on the ballot, earning 57% of the vote, and undoubtedly helped pro-choice Democrats seize control of the Legislature for the first time in almost 40 years.

In three key competitive U.S. states — North Carolina, Minnesota and Michigan — tens of thousands of Americans voted “uncommitted” in primary elections rather than vote for President Joe Biden.

It’s part of a movement spearheaded by Arab Americans in Michigan to protest the president’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza, where the health ministry says at least 30,000 Palestinians have been killed. The weapons used by Israel in Gaza are largely funded by, and made in, the United States.

Michigan is a swing state, with a generally even split between voters who lean Democrat and those who lean Republican.

This makes Michigan one of the few battleground states in the presidential election that candidates are hoping to sway the vote for them—but a new poll shows that Michiganders prefer Trump over Biden.

A new survey of Michigan voters suggests their trust is declining in the institution of democracy, the value of a college education and the stability of the economy, even among those who say they're personally doing better than before the COVID pandemic.

The poll also asked about whether the use of force, threats or violence is justified under any circumstances in a democracy, and 35% of poll respondents said they believe it is.

President Biden and his allies had reasons for both hope and concern after a Michigan primary election that revealed the party’s painful divisions over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and confronted him with his largest measure of Democratic opposition to date.

He avoided his anxious supporters’ darkest predictions by winning the Tuesday primary, 81 percent to 13 percent, over an “uncommitted” movement that sprang up to protest his backing of Israel. Yet more than 100,000 voters registered their disapproval of him, signaling serious discontent among Arab Americans, young voters and progressives as he tries to stitch back together his winning 2020 coalition.

A progressive advocacy group is throwing its weight behind a movement to vote uncommitted in Michigan’s Democratic primary in an effort to pressure President Joe Biden to change his stance on the Israel-Hamas war.

Our Revolution, an organization founded by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in 2016, is mobilizing to attempt to change the result of the Feb. 27 primary, expressing voter displeasure by boosting the uncommitted vote. The organization is planning to send 87,000 emails to Michigan members and 225,000 to supporters in other states to try and “push Biden to change course on Gaza now,” according to the New York Times.

In many states this November, the presidential candidate who snags the winner's share of electoral votes is unlikely to be a surprise.

But across seven swing states – stretching from the desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest and back down into the South – the outcome remains very much in play, and the 93 votes up for grabs are likely to decide who ultimately ends up in the White House come January: incumbent President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

As the November election approaches, U.S. presidential campaigns are focusing on crucial swing states that will decide the winner of the White House. In a fiercely contested rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, both candidates have little margin for error.

While the popular vote is significant in a presidential election, the key to victory is securing 270 electoral votes (out of 538), and this year's projections indicate a tighter race than 2020.

With 174 days — fewer than six months — left until Election Day, we're now within the window where general-election polling has some predictive value — although it is still subject to plenty of change. And according to 538's newly released polling averages, former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 41.2 percent to 40.5 percent, in national polls (as of Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. Eastern).

But as any election analyst worth their salt will tell you, we elect the president via the Electoral College, not the popular vote. And in the last couple presidential elections, the Electoral College has benefited Republicans. In 2020, Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, but he won Wisconsin — the state that tipped him over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win — by only 0.6 points (representing a 3.9-point Electoral College bias toward Trump). And in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points, but she lost the tipping-point state, again Wisconsin, by 0.8 points — a 2.9-point Electoral College bias.

Marci McCarthy, chairwoman of the DeKalb GOP, said her party’s grassroots canvassing efforts in the suburbs have led conservatives to have a better idea what voters want. She said Tucker voters saw prominent Democrats pushing for Biro’s election solely because he leans left, which she said backfired.

“I think the Democrats have lost their way and have lost touch with voters,” McCarthy said. “It was a huge turnoff in the Tucker mayoral race when Robin Biro decided that he was going to run as a Democrat and was handpicked by chairman John Jackson of the DeKalb Democrats.”

On the eve of Super Tuesday, local party leaders, political consults and pundits on both sides of the aisle have already agreed on who the Republican and Democratic nominees for president will be.

One question lingering in the minds of many is whether the D.C. suburbs, including Arlington, can offer any indication of whether candidates are gaining or losing sufficient suburban voters to impact the general election.

About 3.2 million Texans cast a ballot in the 2024 Texas primaries, with Republicans far outpacing their Democratic counterparts.

Republicans cast 2.3 million ballots on a ticket led by former President Donald Trump, and Democrats cast about 975,000 ballots, according to the Texas secretary of state’s office. That marks a significant drop from the 2020 primary election, when more than 4 million Texans voted, and turnout among Democratic voters surpassed Republican turnout.

Paul Ryan said on Tuesday that the GOP has a better shot at winning the White House if the party does not nominate former President Donald Trump in 2024.

Ryan was asked during an appearance on Fox Business if he thought Trump was electable in 2024. In response, Ryan said that if Republicans want to win the presidency again, they need to choose someone else.