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2024 Michigan Counterplan
AFF › Link › Link---Big Tech is Not Key

The IP Preferences of Big Pharma and Big Tech conflict---causes political power to cancel out and beliefs of even politicians to be unphased.

LTN’10[Law Technology News; March 16; Peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the intersection between technology and the law; “Big Tech Can’t Get It’s Way in D.C.” LexisNexis]

The playing field looks like this: On the one side there are the Googles, Apples, and Oracles of the world, beset by patent infringement lawsuits, who want to weaken the power of patents. On the other side, there's the pharmaceutical industry that spends millions on patenting its drugs and wants to strengthen patents. This side also includes tech companies, such as Qualcomm and Tessera, who rely on their intellectual property for licensing revenue.

One of the biggest sticking points has been damages: Big tech wants Congress to limit how much money inventors can win at trial, while pharma doesn't. They've also been fighting over how easy it is to challenge the validity of a patent.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
AFF › Link › Link---Big Tech is Not Key

Efforts right now mitigate Big Tech interfering in elections

Berryman ‘5-10[Allison Berryman; May 10; M.S Ed from UPenn; techUK, “Is Big Tech the Enemy of Fair Elections? What governments are doing to stem the spread of misinformation and paid influence, and Make Elections Fair Again.” https://www.techuk.org/resource/is-big-tech-the-enemy-of-fair-elections-what-governments-are-doing-to-stem-the-spread-of-misinformation-and-paid-influence-and-make-elections-fair-again.html]

With algorithms designed to maximize engagement, these platforms often amplify and lend authority to sensational content, which can include misinformation. Add to this the dramatically increased effectiveness of political advertising via social media (as compared to traditional methods), with the ability to micro-target demographics with tailored messages. Concerns that these “Gatekeepers” could contribute to election engineering - whether intentionally or as an unintended consequence of their business models – do not seem too far fetched.

Governments are responding to these challenges. The EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) is a pioneering regulation that imposes obligations on large online platforms (most of which are headquartered in the US but are nonetheless caught by the EU regulation in respect of their EU activities) to mitigate systemic risks including, among other things, requiring the transparency of online advertising. It requires large platforms (known as “the Gatekeepers”) to conduct risk assessments and follow guidelines, aiming to mitigate the risks of misinformation and election interference.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Impact › Climate

Trump Exacerbates Warming, extinction

Gingerich ’20[Elizabeth; January; JD and a Professor of Business Law; Valpo, “Leadership in the Sixth Mass Extinction,” ] ZA

The author briefly reviewed the actions that have been taken or are underway to be adopted to combat climate change, spearheaded by grassroots movements and by government and business leaders, yet at a time when consumerism is at an all-time high worldwide. For instance, it was noted that there has been a remarkable advancement of solar panel installation on both new and preexisting construction in Germany, that TGV high-speed rails constitute the primary source of mass transportation in France, that certain automobile manufacturers and teenagers are conspicuously lowering their own carbon footprints (e.g., Volvo eliminating the combustion vehicle and Greta Thunberg sailing the Atlantic), and even that China is installing a football field of solar PV panels each hour of each day – all while the US – with the highest per capita GHG emission levels – continues to miss opportunities. In fact, between Black Friday and Cyber Monday – while much of the world was protesting consumerism – the US was on track for the highest consumer spending levels on record, inevitably exacerbating CO2 emissions. With this dichotomy of action and practice, Chomsky was asked how this could be reversed in time to thwart irreversible environmental damage. He replied that the characterization of failed U.S. leadership is much more deplorable than simple missed opportunities: Missing opportunities’ is too kind. …The Trump administration is dedicated to destroying the prospects for organized human life. Fortunately, there is popular resistance, primarily among the young. Whether it will suffice in time – again, speculation is idle. With a scientific consensus regarding both the cause and consequences of climate change, Dr. Chomsky was asked about the stream of countervailing information, especially as the US government has been one of the primary disseminators of socio/political/economic misinformation. And with the advent of Fox News, deception has been given a formidable propaganda outlet, creating a firm and loyal cult of misinformed individuals throughout the country. Thus, the question was posed: “Although currently we have access to free, innumerable sources of information that if we chose to use to conduct our own research to discover facts which might lead to appropriate action and reaction, this does not appear to be happening – at least not en masse. Do you have a better recipe that could stimulate a more timely and proportional public response to the exigencies of today?” Dr. Chomsky’s response:

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Impact › Climate

Trump kills Climate Change Mitigation

Denning’24[Liam Denning and Mark Gongloff; February 22; Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Bloomberg Opinion Editor; Bloomberg, “A Second Trump Presidency Would Be a Nightmare for the Climate.” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-22/climate-change-trump-s-plans-for-a-second-term-could-be-disastrous]

A second Donald Trump presidency would be a nightmare for Earth’s climate (among other things). But in the same way your immune system builds up defenses after exposure to a virus, efforts to fight global warming are stronger now than the first time Trump attacked them. But he could still do significant damage from the White House.

In his first term, Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, rolled back environmental regulations, unleashed oil and gas drilling and more. His advisers seem to think he didn’t go far enough. Report after report after report quotes them planning for “all-out war on climate science and policies” that will make first-term Trump look like Al Gore by comparison.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Impact › Impacts

Trump kills innovation

Solomon’16[Brian Solomon; July 14; Forbes staff writer; Forbes, “Donald Trump Would Be 'A Disaster For Innovation,' 145 Tech Leaders Say.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/briansolomon/2016/07/14/145-tech-leaders-sign-letter-calling-trump-a-disaster-for-innovation/]

Billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel may be backing Donald Trump, and even speaking at the Republican National Convention. But many other technology leaders have come out strongly opposed to a Trump presidency.

On Thursday morning, 145 technology CEOs, billionaire investors, and upcoming entrepreneurs from some of the largest companies and startups in Silicon Valley signed an open letter that condemned Trump as "a disaster for innovation." The list includes Slack's Stewart Butterfield, IAC's Barry Diller, Qualcomm's Irwin Jacobs, Tumblr's David Karp, Box's Aaron Levie, Facebook's Dustin Moskovitz, Reddit's Alexis Ohanian, eBay's Pierre Omidyar, Zynga's Mark Pincus, Medium's Ev Williams, Apple's Steve Wozniak, and venture capitalists Vinod Khosla and Chris Sacca.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Impact › Impacts

Trump presidency would kill tech innovation – spikes warming and allows China rise

Friedman 24, Lisa Friedman writes about how governments are addressing climate change and the effects of those policies on communities. She has been a reporter for more than 30 years, half of them covering climate change, Trump Says Clean Energy Is a Scam. That Could Benefit China, Experts Say, June 26th, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/26/climate/trump-clean-energy-china.html[AMoss]

In the race for the White House, former President Donald J. Trump has attacked President Biden’s policies to expand renewable energy as a “plan to make China rich” because America’s greatest economic rival also controls many of the parts needed for electric-vehicle batteries, solar panels and other green technology.

But eliminating Mr. Biden’s climate policies would end up helping China, economists say, by jeopardizing hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing investments that have already been made in the United States and sending that work back to other countries, including China.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Biden is catching up and gaining ground in key swing states

Calder 7/6 (Rich Calder is a Contributing Writer at New York Post, 7/6/24, Biden gaining ground on Trump in battleground states despite disaster debate: new poll, New York Post, https://nypost.com/2024/07/06/us-news/biden-gain-ground-on-trump-in-battleground-states-poll/, L.B.)

President Biden managed to gain ground on former President Donald Trump in key battleground states and trails by only 2% — even after his disastrous debate performance last week, a new poll shows. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leads Democrat Biden 47% to 45%, in the crucial states needed to win the November election, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll released Saturday. It’s the smallest gap since the poll began in October. Although Biden is losing in Pennsylvania, the state where he grew up, he now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s also within the poll’s statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — though he trails in those states.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Biden is winning --- media hype is wrong and age concerns are baked in.

Kevin Manahan 7-6-2024, Kevin Manahan has been a reporter since 1981, briefly serving on The Star-Ledger Editorial Board. He worked for USA Today for two years. “Take that, Biden doubters: New swing state poll shows media is wrong about race vs. Trump” [NJ.com] /MDC

Maybe, in the end, the doom-selling media and doubters in the Democratic party will be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time. Turns out, Democrats and voters in swing states are still ridin’ with Biden.

President Joe Biden registered his best showing yet in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states, even as voters and the media offered criticisms of his debate performance against Republican presidential opponent Donald Trump.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Debate performance doesn’t matter --- Biden will still win.

Marina Pitofsky 7-7-2024, Marina Pitofsky is the deputy editor for Congress and Campaigns at USA Today and graduated with a BA in Political Science and Government from Georgetown University. “Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says Dems shouldn't rebel against Biden” [USA Today] /MDC

Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted the results of nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections, said Sunday that if Democratic delegates rebel against President Joe Biden and choose another Democratic nominee, it could spell chaos for the party.

There's no indication that Democratic delegates in large numbers would opt for another candidate to lead the party in November's election. But “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream asked Lichtman what obligations Democratic delegates have “if President Biden says he’s not going to leave the ticket.”

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Biden is having a post-debate rebound – latest polls

Roy 7-6 [Yash Roy. 7.6.2024. Yash Roy is a 2024 summer editorial intern for The Hill, where he helps cover breaking news and report enterprise stories on national politics. The Hill. “Biden narrows Trump’s lead in swing states after debate debacle: Survey”. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4757918-joe-biden-donald-trump-swing-states-bloomberg-morning-consult-survey/]/CPSW-NL

President Biden, in the wake of a poor debate performance and growing calls for him to step aside, has narrowed Trump’s lead in the key swing states, according to a new survey. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, published Saturday, showed Biden leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the incumbent is now within the margin of error, per the survey. Overall, the poll found that Trump is leading Biden by only 2 percentage points across the seven states — 47 percent to 45 percent. This is the closest Biden has been to overtaking Trump since Bloomberg started tracking the seven states last October. The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40 percent. In a previous poll, the former president led the incumbent 44 percent to 36 percent. The widest gap between the presumptive party nominees came from the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Biden’s home turf. The survey shows Trump received 51 percent of support from Keystone State voters, compared to Biden’s 44 percent. This was Bloomberg’s first poll after the June 28 debate, which was hosted by CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The president’s lackluster performance on stage — where he stumbled over his words and had a raspy voice — has raised concerns among Democrats about his ability to beat Trump in November or serve as president for another four years. “While the first 2024 presidential debate appeared to alarm some Democratic leaders, our surveys of swing-state for Bloomberg News show the matter has done little to change the underlying dynamics of the contest,” Morning Consult US political consultant Eli Yokley wrote alongside the poll release. Respondents generally found that Trump performed better in the debate, with more than half saying he won, while only 13 percent said Biden was the victor. Fewer than one in five respondents believed that Biden was the more coherent, mentally fit or dominant participant. About 20 percent of those polled said the president was mentally fit, while nearly half said the same about Trump. Of those polled, 44 percent said Biden, 81, was too old to be president, while 8 percent said Trump, 78, was too old.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Biden is having a post-debate rebound – latest polls

Roy 7-6 [Yash Roy. 7.6.2024. Yash Roy is a 2024 summer editorial intern for The Hill, where he helps cover breaking news and report enterprise stories on national politics. The Hill. “Biden narrows Trump’s lead in swing states after debate debacle: Survey”. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4757918-joe-biden-donald-trump-swing-states-bloomberg-morning-consult-survey/]/CPSW-NL

President Biden, in the wake of a poor debate performance and growing calls for him to step aside, has narrowed Trump’s lead in the key swing states, according to a new survey. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, published Saturday, showed Biden leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the incumbent is now within the margin of error, per the survey. Overall, the poll found that Trump is leading Biden by only 2 percentage points across the seven states — 47 percent to 45 percent. This is the closest Biden has been to overtaking Trump since Bloomberg started tracking the seven states last October. The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40 percent. In a previous poll, the former president led the incumbent 44 percent to 36 percent. The widest gap between the presumptive party nominees came from the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Biden’s home turf. The survey shows Trump received 51 percent of support from Keystone State voters, compared to Biden’s 44 percent. This was Bloomberg’s first poll after the June 28 debate, which was hosted by CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The president’s lackluster performance on stage — where he stumbled over his words and had a raspy voice — has raised concerns among Democrats about his ability to beat Trump in November or serve as president for another four years. “While the first 2024 presidential debate appeared to alarm some Democratic leaders, our surveys of swing-state for Bloomberg News show the matter has done little to change the underlying dynamics of the contest,” Morning Consult US political consultant Eli Yokley wrote alongside the poll release. Respondents generally found that Trump performed better in the debate, with more than half saying he won, while only 13 percent said Biden was the victor. Fewer than one in five respondents believed that Biden was the more coherent, mentally fit or dominant participant. About 20 percent of those polled said the president was mentally fit, while nearly half said the same about Trump. Of those polled, 44 percent said Biden, 81, was too old to be president, while 8 percent said Trump, 78, was too old.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Biden is catching up and gaining ground in key swing states

Calder 7/6 (Rich Calder is a Contributing Writer at New York Post, 7/6/24, Biden gaining ground on Trump in battleground states despite disaster debate: new poll, New York Post, https://nypost.com/2024/07/06/us-news/biden-gain-ground-on-trump-in-battleground-states-poll/, L.B.)

President Biden managed to gain ground on former President Donald Trump in key battleground states and trails by only 2% — even after his disastrous debate performance last week, a new poll shows. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leads Democrat Biden 47% to 45%, in the crucial states needed to win the November election, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll released Saturday. It’s the smallest gap since the poll began in October. Although Biden is losing in Pennsylvania, the state where he grew up, he now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s also within the poll’s statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — though he trails in those states.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Biden is winning --- media hype is wrong and age concerns are baked in.

Kevin Manahan 7-6-2024, Kevin Manahan has been a reporter since 1981, briefly serving on The Star-Ledger Editorial Board. He worked for USA Today for two years. “Take that, Biden doubters: New swing state poll shows media is wrong about race vs. Trump” [NJ.com] /MDC

Maybe, in the end, the doom-selling media and doubters in the Democratic party will be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time. Turns out, Democrats and voters in swing states are still ridin’ with Biden.

President Joe Biden registered his best showing yet in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states, even as voters and the media offered criticisms of his debate performance against Republican presidential opponent Donald Trump.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
UQ › Biden Wins Now › UQ---Biden Wins---Ext

Debate performance doesn’t matter --- Biden will still win.

Marina Pitofsky 7-7-2024, Marina Pitofsky is the deputy editor for Congress and Campaigns at USA Today and graduated with a BA in Political Science and Government from Georgetown University. “Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says Dems shouldn't rebel against Biden” [USA Today] /MDC

Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted the results of nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections, said Sunday that if Democratic delegates rebel against President Joe Biden and choose another Democratic nominee, it could spell chaos for the party.

There's no indication that Democratic delegates in large numbers would opt for another candidate to lead the party in November's election. But “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream asked Lichtman what obligations Democratic delegates have “if President Biden says he’s not going to leave the ticket.”

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Link › Specific › Link---AT: Latinx Voters Don’t Care

--Latino voters are extremely concerned about economic issues

UnidosUS 4/11 (Since 1968, UnidosUS has united communities and different groups seeking common ground through collaboration, and that share a desire to make our country stronger. 4/11/24, Latino Vote Series Part 1: Economic and Pocketbook Issues Influencing Hispanic Voter Perspectives, UnidosUS, https://unidosus.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/unidosus_deck_economicandpocketbookissuesinfluencinghispanicvoterperspectives.pdf, L.B.)

1. Latino voter priorities are driven by economic concerns. In total, 64% of Latino voters cite an economic-related issue as their TOP concern. 2. Inflation and the rising cost of living (20%), jobs and the economy (19%), and healthcare (18%) consistently rank as the top three issues Latino voters want elected officials to address. In addition to these, another 7% cite lack of affordable housing or Social Security and Medicare as top issues. • Food and basic necessities, housing/rent, and gasoline are the principal worries regarding inflation • Jobs with better pay and better benefits top other economic concerns • For healthcare, the costs of insurance worry Latinos deeply 3. Many Latinos are feeling pessimistic about the direction of the country (56% believe U.S. is on wrong track) and the majority don’t see either party as effective champions of their most pressing concerns. 4. While the majority of Latinos plan to vote in the 2024 Presidential election (57% certain will vote and another 16% likely), many have not made a firm commitment to do so. There are significant outreach opportunities to engage with Latino voters and close the participation gap across different demographic groups within the very diverse Latino electorate. 5. In 2024, 22% of Latinos (one in five) will be voting in their first Presidential election • 16% for the first time in ANY federal election, and another 15% voted in 2020 for the first time • 38% of the Latino electorate (more than one-in-three) is new since the Clinton and Trump election in 2016

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Link › Specific › Link---AT: Latinx Voters aren’t Powerful

Independents will decide the election – more independents in swing states than ever

Rove 24 [Karl, Former White House Deputy Chief of Staff; “Independent voters in key states will decide the outcome of presidential election”; 4/04; American Enterprise Institute; https://www.aei.org/op-eds/independent-voters-are-key-to-2024/] /sb

At first glance, becoming president looks like simple arithmetic: Carry at least 90% of your party’s adherents and win more independents than the other candidate and voilà, you’re in the White House.

That’s how Donald Trump won in 2016. It’s also how Joe Biden defeated Trump four years later. The equation works as long as there is near-parity between the parties, as in 2020 when the electorate was 36% Republican, 37% Democratic and 26% Independent.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Link › Specific › Link---Latinx---2NC

--Latino voters value the state of the economy under a president greatly

Clark 3/23 (Jeffrey Clark is an associate editor for Fox News Digital. He has previously served as a speechwriter for a cabinet secretary and as a Fulbright teacher in South Korea. Jeffrey graduated from the University of Iowa in 2019 with a degree in English and History. 3/23/24, Arizona Latino voters fret about high cost of living in Biden's economy as election looms, Fox News Channel, https://www.foxnews.com/media/arizona-latino-voters-fret-high-cost-living-bidens-economy-election-looms, L.B.)

Latino voters in Arizona discussed inflation and other economic difficulties under President Biden in an interview with CBS News on Wednesday. Steve Macias, who voted for former President Trump in 2020, said that he was having "trouble trying to figure out" which candidate he was going to vote for in the presidential election. But Macias said that he was also deeply concerned about the cost of food and other goods. "I was putting gas in the car the other day and I walked in to buy a candy bar, which I don’t do too often, and I looked down [and] it was $2.29," he said. "I can afford a candy bar, but I refuse to buy this candy bar because I’m not paying $2.29 for a candy bar," he said, adding that other common goods like "toilet paper" and even food items like "chicken" have become more difficult to afford. "It used to be that we could go out and do things [like] go out to dinner once twice a week," Raquel Gloden, an independent who voted for Trump in 2020, told CBS News. "Now, no, that’s not happening," she said. "We have to budget everything down to the finest thing and the cost of health care and medical has gone up."

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Link › Specific › Link---Latinx---2NC

--Strong IPR are critical to a strong economy- jobs, innovation, and new markets

The Sun 22 (The Daily Sun is a Nigerian daily print newspaper founded and published in KiriKiri Industrial Layout, Lagos, Nigeria.[1] As of 2011, The Sun had a daily print run of 130,000 copies, and 135,000 for weekend titles, with an average of 80% sales. This made The Sun the highest-selling newspaper in Nigeria.[2] 5/8/22, Intellectual property rights protection critical for economic growth –US envoy, Accessed via LexisUni, https://advance-lexis-com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:65D8-1VX1-JDJN-63D1-00000-00&context=1516831. L.B.)

For the United States government, there is greater commitment to promoting public awareness of the importance of protecting and enforcing intellectual property rights (IPR), as a strategic resource for bolstering economic growth in Nigeria. To mark this year's World Intellectual Property Day, the US Mission in collaboration with the American Business Council, hosted the second edition of its Intellectual Property (IP) symposium themed: 'Intellectual Property and Youth: Innovating for a Better Future'. The two-day symposium, led by the United States Department of Justice's INL-funded Office of Overseas Prosecutorial Development, Assistance and Training (OPDAT)'s International Computer Hacking and Intellectual Property Attorney Adviser (ICHIP), brought together key stakeholders in Nigeria's IPR protection framework, including leading entertainment and creative industry leaders. In her remarks during the opening ceremony of the symposium in Lagos, US Ambassador, Mary Beth Leonard stated that protection of intellectual property rights is critical for any economy that wants to foster a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship. She further noted that strong intellectual property rights protection is essential to creating jobs and opening new markets for goods and services. The envoy then encouraged stakeholders in the intellectual property space to shore up Nigeria's IPR legal framework and lay a solid foundation for youth to drive innovation and engender a more prosperous Nigeria. "Nigerian youth are an incredible source of ingenuity and creativity. A strong system of intellectual property rights assures inventors, industrial designers, musicians, and artists alike that their creative content will be protected and valued," Ambassador Leonard said. The symposium featured a plenary session, thematic panel discussions and exhibitions with particular focus on Nigeria's burgeoning entertainment and creative industries. Participants discussed how intellectual property rights could support their goals, help transform ideas into reality, generate income, create jobs, and make a positive impact.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Link › Specific › Link---Latinx---2NC

Latino voters have the ability to swing the 2024 election to Biden

Gamboa et al 4/27 (Suzanne Gamboa is a national reporter for NBC Latino and NBCNews.com, Nicole Acevedo is a reporter for NBC News Digital. She reports, writes and produces stories for NBC Latino and NBCNews.com. Isabela Espadas Barros Leal is an associate editor for NBC News' diversity verticals based in New York., 4/27/24, Disillusionment plagues young Latinos who could decide the 2024 race in battleground states, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/young-latino-voters-candidates-2024-election-rcna147624, L.B.)

TEMPE, Ariz. — Young Latino voters in key swing states have the numbers to potentially sway the 2024 presidential election. But interviews with nearly two dozen young Latino students on college campuses in battleground states revealed many are currently unmotivated to back a candidate or even cast a ballot. The students in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia spoke passionately about Israel’s war in Gaza, the rising cost of living, immigration and abortion. Almost everyone interviewed said TikTok is where they get most of their news. Amid the palm trees at Arizona State University, senior Darien Guerrero, 22, said he leans Republican. What he cares about most is the “great threat of climate change.” But voting in November wasn’t high on his to-do list. Climate change “is a problem that is bigger than us, bigger than the elections, the parties or anything. This is a human civilization problem,” said Guerrero, a biology major. He added that those in power often seem to be in the way of his generation’s efforts to fix the issue. In the western U.S., which includes the battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, Latinos are nearly 4 of every 10 newly eligible voters — defined as those who have reached ages 18 or 19 since the 2022 midterms. In the South, Latinos are 24% of newly eligible voters, and in the Northeast they make up 19%. Arizona Young voters usually favor Democratic candidates: The Harvard Youth Poll showed young Hispanics favor President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump 50% to 27% in a two-way race, with 22% saying they don’t know. National polls currently show a tight race among all voters. If young voters, many of them Latino, don’t vote in large enough numbers for Democrats — particularly in Arizona, Georgia or Pennsylvania — “that could be the whole race,” said Republican consultant Mike Madrid.

2024 Michigan Counterplan
Link › Specific › Link---AT: Independents Don’t Turnout

Independents turn out more than the Democratic base - 2022 proves

Winston 22 [David, Election analyst for CBS News; “It was all about the independents, again”; Roll Call; https://rollcall.com/2022/11/16/it-was-all-about-the-independents-again/] /sb

For regular readers of this column, the determinative role independent voters played in last week’s elections likely came as no surprise. I have written more columns over more years than I care to remember arguing that base election strategies are as out-of-date and out-of-touch as the stale, negative campaign messaging that still dominates politics today. 

According to the Edison Research preliminary exit polls, independents were without question the most critical voter group in this election. In fact, they made up 31 percent of the electorate, the largest percentage going back as far as the 1980 election.