Bilateral commitment to hotlines solves escalatory conflict

International Crisis Group, "Risky Competition: Strengthening U.S.-China Crisis Management," International Crisis Group, 5-20-2022, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/china-united-states/risky-competition-strengthening-us-china-crisis-management-- 嘉玮

In the spirit of reinforcing reliance on existing tools, the two sides should also recommit both internally and bilaterally to making regular use of the Defense Telephone Link, which proved to be an effective crisis prevention mechanism when concerns about a potential U.S. attack in the Spratlys emerged in Beijing in 2020. As noted above, each side is supposed to provide 48 hours’ advance notice before a requested call and respond within 24 hours of receiving the notice. Beijing and Washington might try enhancing the crisis prevention utility of the telephone link by abbreviating these intervals, perhaps halving the advance notice requirement period to 24 hours and the response time to twelve hours. Efforts to create new hotlines are unlikely to produce results or to be useful during a crisis, because of the limitations previously raised.