Climate change turns and outweighs case—heightens conflict and drowns coastal countries

Werrell and Femia 18- Werrell is Co-Founder and Senior Advisor for The Center for Climate and Security and The Council on Strategic Risks and Femia is the CEO of the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR), and Co-Founder of the Center for Climate and Security.

Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia, "Climate change raises conflict concerns," UNESCO, 02-xx-2018, https://en.unesco.org/courier/2018-2/climate-change-raises-conflict-concerns-- 嘉玮

Several studies, combined with models and foresight exercises, show with increasing accuracy, the way in which changes in climatic conditions can, if left unmitigated, scale up to higher-order security situations, including a higher likelihood of conflict. A lot of the research to this point, however, has focused on the links between climate change, increased rainfall variability, and conflict. Other scenarios in which climate impacts and security intersect and combine to form the foundation of a new geopolitical landscape include:

‣ Sea-level rise and coastal cities

Urbanization is occurring rapidly in the Horn of Africa, including along the coast. Coastal cities with burgeoning populations, like Mogadishu (Somalia), Djibouti City and Mombasa (Kenya) are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Rising sea levels threaten to inundate critical infrastructure in these cities, contaminate freshwater supplies through saltwater intrusion, reduce arable land, and potentially displace large numbers of people.

‣ Dangerous seaways

The Gulf of Aden is a critical waterway along the Horn of Africa. As climate change further narrows economic opportunities in the region, an even greater increase of piracy along the coast is likely. Indeed, research has shown that there is a significant overlap between countries showing a high incidence of piracy attacks (off the coasts of Somalia and Eritrea), and the most significant climate vulnerability in Africa. This paints a worrying picture of the kinds of overlapping risks that can perpetuate state failure in the Horn.

‣ Fish and food security

Ocean acidification and warming are contributing to the migration and depletion of fish stocks around the world, including along the coast of the Horn of Africa – though the lack of extensive monitoring in this region means there is a gap in the knowledge of the extent of the impacts. Changing ocean chemistry and temperatures can increase the likelihood of international tensions between countries and subnational actors of the Horn that share a coastline – including a heightened potential for conflict over fishing, as their respective fishing fleets roam into neighbouring waters, or compete over dwindling stocks in international waters.