Aff can’t solve—Only Southeast Asian diplomacy deters escalation

Jakarta Post, "De-escalating South China Sea tensions," Asia News Network, 3-07-2023, https://asianews.network/de-escalating-south-china-sea-tensions/-- 嘉玮

What factors exist that can restrain both sides from engaging in full conflicts in the South China Sea are not too clear, if indeed there are any. Here, with the escalating tension, it could become a question of who blinks first. It is not an understatement to say if war were to begin between the two powers, dare we say the start of World War III, it would likely begin in these waters, rather than around Taiwan.

This calls for swift diplomacy from a third party to de-escalate the tension. Southeast Asian countries, which are directly feeling the impact, should step in, no matter how unfeasible it may sound.

Other middle powers in the region like India, Japan, South Korea and Australia are already aligning with the US. Some members of ASEAN, out of national interests, are siding with one or the other power. So much for ASEAN unity.

This leaves Indonesia among the few that can take up the role of an honest broker. Indonesia must use whatever diplomatic leverage it has to get both powers to back off. Indonesia must muster all its diplomatic skills and experience to promote peace and stability in the region, and in this particular case, in the world. The task at hand is nothing less than preventing a World War III.

Indonesia did not come to this as a complete novice in peace-making. It pulled off the impossible when it hosted the Group of 20 Summit last November despite disagreements among members over the Russian-Ukraine war. In the 1980s-90s, Indonesia initiated the Cambodia peace process. And Indonesia has stubbornly stuck to its principle of nonalignment in this rivalry, so that it can talk to both sides.

Admittedly, this task is a much bigger one than Indonesia has ever tackled before, but it should give it a try nevertheless. Our Constitution mandates nothing less.