China won’t invade Taiwan—experts concur
Blanes et al. 23- project manager for the Teaching, Research, and International Policy project at William & Mary.
Irene Entringer García Blanes, Shauna N. Gillooly, Susan Peterson, Michael J. Tierney, "Poll: What Is the Likelihood of War Over Taiwan?," Foreign Policy, 4-13-2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/13/china-attack-taiwan-war-expert-poll-biden/-- 嘉玮
Will China invade Taiwan?
The IR experts largely disagree with the assessment that China is likely to invade Taiwan soon. Survey respondents received one of two questions about the chance that China would use military force against Taiwan in the next year. Half of respondents were given the option to select “Yes,” “No,” or “Don’t know.” Among respondents in this group, 72.5 percent said China would not use military force against Taiwan, 22 percent indicated that they didn’t know, and just 6 percent said that China would invade Taiwan in the next year.
These assessments have not changed much in the last year: In a March 2022 survey, 71 percent of respondents said China would not use military force against Taiwan, 22 percent indicated that they didn’t know, and 7 percent said that China would invade Taiwan in the next year.