Arms sales escalates—increases tensions with China by damaging perceived sovereignty in the region

A. Trevor Thrall and Jordan Cohen, "Time to Rethink Arms Sales to Taiwan," Defense One, 11-2-2020, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/11/time-rethink-arms-sales-taiwan/169702/-- 嘉玮

On the other hand, the observation that arms sales to Taiwan increase tensions with China should be an uncontroversial one. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said that these sales “seriously damage China’s sovereignty and security interests, send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces, and severely damage China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” Zhao added that China will make a “legitimate and necessary response” because of the sales.

Beijing’s reasons for being concerned should not be a surprise. Taiwan’s leaders are not really buying missiles or planes or tanks; they are buying signals of American commitment to Taiwan’s independence. For China, this means another great power has influence with a nearby, rival neighbor. Both Beijing and Taipei know that anti-tank missiles will not change the regional balance of power. Instead, these sales signal that the U.S. wants to maintain its own influence in the region and to deny China regional primacy.

Selling arms to Taiwan also creates a moral hazard that could make things even worse. By giving Taiwan’s leaders greater confidence in American support, arms sales may encourage them to engage in provocative behavior that aggravates China and in turn, encourages Beijing to act more aggressively. The greater the chances for conflict between Taiwan and China, the greater the prospects that the United States winds up in a shooting war with a nuclear-armed adversary.