Militancy causes escalation—it reinforces Beijing’s belief that compromise is too dangerous

Robert D. Blackwill, "Policy Prescriptions for U.S.-China Relations," Council on Foreign Relations, 01-09-2023, https://www.cfr.org/blog/policy-prescriptions-us-china-relations-- 嘉玮

But first, let me stress that in my view in recent times, neither the United States nor China has made such specific policy proposals to reduce tensions. Rather, daily mutual denunciation has been the order of the day. To depart this road to global catastrophe will require compromise and political will from both sides. Neither of those have been present in recent years. The Chinese have an aphorism that applies here, “If you want to catch a fish, don’t climb a tree.” In recent years, Washington and Beijing have climbed ever higher in the tree.

So, why is there no sign of political will and compromise from either Beijing or Washington? There are several reasons why China may be unwilling to compromise.

Perhaps Xi Jinping and his colleagues believe they have a winning hand because the United States is in secular decline. Thus, there is no need for Beijing to compromise.

Perhaps Xi Jinping and his colleagues believe that the United States has containing China as its strategic objective: To weaken China and to trigger regime change in China. Thus, it is too dangerous for Beijing to compromise.

Perhaps Xi Jinping and his colleagues believe that the U.S. is abandoning the One China policy, hollowing it out on the way to recognizing Taiwan as an independent state. Thus, again, it would be too dangerous for Beijing to compromise.