Militancy turns case—sets the precedent that war with China is inevitable which undermines Taiwan independent movements and inflames relations with China

Garrett Ehinger, "Don’t Make Taiwan Our Newest Forever War," Inkstick, 3-14-2023, https://inkstickmedia.com/dont-make-taiwan-our-newest-forever-war/-- 嘉玮

In fact, not only would US involvement in the conflict inflame China’s drive to win or better their odds of victory, but the potential of involvement itself could propel Taiwan into the arms of the Chinese Communist Party before an invasion ever happens. Taiwan may not want to be caught in the middle of a US-China war, and while it might be happy to continue posturing and playing both sides, further US provocation of China might spook Taiwan away from its typical posturing and toward a preemptive reconciliation with China. This is evidenced by sweeping electoral victories by the pro-detente Kuomintang (KMT) party following Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif) visit to Taiwan in August 2022, where 13 of the 21 cities and counties up for grabs were stolen from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. The KMT most notably took four of the six biggest metropolitan areas accounting for 70% of Taiwan’s population.

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

While not exactly the same, there are certainly aspects of America’s past forever wars that could be easily reflected in a Sino-US conflict over Taiwan, aspects that US policymakers must be cognizant of when considering closer alignment with Taiwan. The United States’ role in such a conflict could quickly spiral out of control, with potentially apocalyptic consequences for armed conflict between two nuclear states.

Americans must learn from past military failures. With these risks in mind, US policymakers should forego any motions that inflame cross-strait tensions and limit US options over the Taiwan question. High-ranking officials should take a more optimistic stance with regard to Taiwan’s ability to defend itself and forego the preconceived notion of a US war with China. In other words, US officials should work to maintain strategic ambiguity to prolong peace and work through other means to contain Chinese aggression.