SNAP negotiations prove the farm bill passing will be all about political capital.

The budget-driven political playbook may be an effective political strategy that is relatively easy to execute; it has been honed since 1981 (see e.g., Stockman 1986; Greider, December 1981). The policy accomplishments are much more difficult to discern, but this strategy has certainly accomplished little in terms of reducing federal spending, deficits or debt. The most recent House debt limit bill is a rather striking proposal, largely devoid of major substantive policy changes and would modestly reduce annual deficits or the national debt. The changes to SNAP stand as an exemplar, recycling work requirements at a time of historic unemployment achieves little actual savings while likely harming hundreds of thousands of low-income Americans. The point, however, is not policy substance or actual spending reductions; it is negotiating leverage and politics. The effectiveness of this latest iteration of the strategy remains very much in doubt, more so the consequences and impacts of either success or failure. The same can be said for the prospects of reauthorizing a farm bill in 2023. An optimist might see a proposal and an opening negotiating position less extreme than in the past, or that might have been expected; a pessimist might see a relatively transparent attempt at positioning for shifting the blame of pending catastrophe. The deadline for taking action is rapidly approaching.