Populist leaders have been decreasing steadily – COVID and opposition cooaltions weaken their hold on the U.S. – Also disproves causality of their structural internal link

Brett Meyer, January 6 2022, “A Playbook Against Populism? Populist Leadership in Decline in 2021,” Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, https://institute.global/policy/playbook-against-populism-populist-leadership-decline-2021

In our annual update to our Populists in Power database, we find that the number of populist leaders in power at the beginning of 2022 is down from 17 at the beginning of 2021 to 13 – the lowest since 2004. Three of the four populist leaders who lost power were less ideological anti-establishment populists, meaning that the remaining populists are almost all culturally right wing.

Two common factors appear to have contributed to this significant fall in the number of populist leaders. First, the pandemic may have reminded the public of the importance of seriousness and expertise in policymaking. Countries with populist leaders around the world had higher Covid-19 case and death rates than those without populist leaders, and populist leaders in Europe have seen a sustained dip in their polling popularity relative to more conventional parties throughout the pandemic.

Second, unusually broad opposition coalitions have emerged to depose populist incumbents. Historically divided opposition parties adopted a narrow focus in their election campaigns to remove the populist leader. This happened in three out of four populist losses in 2021. We also see evidence of opposition parties following this “playbook” in countries where populist leaders are facing elections in 2022.

The danger posed by populism lies in the damage leaders can do to the norms and institutions of liberal democracy. However, we find that, in most of the cases where populist leaders lost power last year, there is limited evidence that key norms such as a free press, an independent judiciary and the peaceful transfer of power have been obviously weakened. That said, elections in the coming years in countries where populist governments have invoked more radical reform to entrench their positions give less cause for optimism.