Autocracies Dangerous; Cause Conflicts

What are the consequences of the current wave of autocratization? Research has clear answers to this question. First and foremost, autocratization paves the way for more (and bloodier) conflicts. According to Kant’s idea of perpetual peace, democracies do not attack other democracies. For a resurgent autocrat like Putin, however, the idea of attacking other states is no longer out of bounds, with the invasion of Ukraine being a case in point. Even in domestic conflicts such as the war in Syria, it is evident that there are more casualties when autocracies are involved in the conflict. The world map in Figure 3 shows democracies as well as autocracies, indicating whether they were involved in armed conflict (domestic and international) in 2021. Most democratic countries were peaceful in 2021 (dark purple). For autocracies, however, we find the opposite: the majority of autocratic states were involved in armed conflict in 2021. Second, democratic political institutions function as a kind of economic safety net offering protection against economic meltdowns (such as crises or excessive exploitation of natural resources by dictators). If this net is not in place, autocrats whose power is unchecked by parliaments or the judiciary can cause lasting economic damage to their country. Third, as mentioned earlier, data manipulation and disinformation in the digital age, aside from obviously misleading the population, means an enormous challenge for liberal democracies trying to pursue evidence-based policies. The example of Covid mortality rates illustrates that a scientific evaluation and international comparison of anti-Covid measures is impossible if the statistics from autocratic countries contain manipulated figures. As a consequence, joint international efforts to address crises are hampered. The current wave of autocratization involves more and economically stronger countries than in the past 120 years. Targeted disinformation, toxic polarization, and autocratization reinforce each other, creating a vicious cycle that affects both democratic and authoritarian regimes. The possible effects of the autocratization wave can be observed in Russia, for example: Resurgent autocrats run their country without concern for human and economic harm, deceiving both their own population and the international community. This development needs to be further monitored and evaluated in order to explore the extent to which the expected consequences actually materialize. In addition, targeted measures are needed to protect democracy in affected countries.