6. Their Douglas card proves no recession is coming. In addition, proves alt. causes – is exclusively about banks, which the aff does nothing to solve. We read blue:

SINGAPORE—Turmoil in the U.S. banking sector isn’t just a problem for the U.S. It also increases the risks of a global recession. Many economists expected a significant downturn in global economic growth this year even before U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, because of an expected pullback in spending and investment in the U.S. and Europe amid climbing interest rates. Those concerns eased somewhat early in the year, with data showing surprising economic vitality in Western economies, and the beginnings of a revival in China after Beijing in December ditched its zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19. But now some pessimism is creeping back. Though economists broadly believe that a full-blown financial crisis isn’t likely, they also see heightened risks to global growth from a shaken banking sector and the specter of tightening credit. “It is potentially a rather perilous time for the world economy,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University. Piling banking-sector problems on top of rising interest rates in advanced economies “could have spillover effects across the globe,” he said. The immediate risk is that banks in the U.S. keep a tighter leash on lending to American households and businesses to ensure their balance sheets stay healthy and depositors sleep easy, economists say. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that such a scenario is “potentially quite real” and could “easily have a significant macroeconomic effect.” A U.S. lending squeeze could have an effect on global growth by pinching demand for other countries’ goods and services, such as German cars, French holidays or Chinese-made electronics. More broadly, global trade and the financial system are underpinned by the U.S. dollar. That means tighter U.S. financial conditions—such as less lending, higher borrowing costs, lower prices for stocks and other assets—can quickly spread to other economies. Banks outside the U.S., facing higher dollar funding costs, may rein in lending to domestic households and businesses, amplifying the cross-border hit from weakening U.S. imports. Heavily-indebted governments could find it harder to borrow. Global trade is highly sensitive to shifts in dollar-led financial conditions, according to a January paper by economists at the Bank for International Settlements and Seoul National University. The authors found that trade as a share of global growth expands when the dollar is weak and global financial conditions are easy, as cheap working capital allows companies to expand elaborate cross-border supply chains. When the dollar strengthens or financial conditions get stricter, trade’s share of growth shrinks. “The U.S. dollar greases the wheels of global trade and finance and, by extension, global growth,” said Sue Trinh, co-head of global macro strategy at Manulife Asset Management in Singapore.