2050 is the brink for ag --- current reliance on non-green practices dooms the world

Global and national food and nutrition security are facing critical challenges in the decades ahead. It is expected that global food demand will increase by nearly 70% by 2050. This increased demand will be driven by population growth, changing dietary demands of a more affluent and increasingly urban population, and increased competition for resources between food, feed, fiber and biofuel feedstock production. Prospects for achieving these increases in agricultural output will be impaired by deteriorating soil quality, decreasing availability of fresh water, and industrial farming’s high dependence on fossil energy sources for mechanization, pesticides and fertilizers (IAASTD, 2009). The agriculture sector will need to affordably nourish nine billion people worldwide by 2050.

There is evidence suggesting that a successful green transformation of the agricultural sector could meet global food needs while also contributing to the mitigation of GHG, improving the conservation of biodiversity, water and land resources, slowing the pace of rural to urban migration and improving farmers’ adaptation to climate change impacts (Pretty et al., 2006). The transition to more sustainable agriculture practices is needed to support our growing population and should also serve as an economic development engine to create jobs and prosperity in the now impoverished and depopulating rural areas.

The global agriculture sector, including forestry and fisheries currently provides over 1 billion jobs (ILO, 2009) and 3% of the global GDP (WDI, 2009). In many developing countries, agriculture provides between 20% to more than 50% of national GDP (WDI, 2009). There is a wide disparity between developed and developing countries with regards to the proportions of their work force that are involved in agriculture (e.g. 6% in the EU versus 56% in Africa) (FAOSTAT, 2010). The majority of the world’s poor live in rural areas and their incomes are predominantly based on agriculture. It should also be recognized that most small holder farmers are primarily focused on producing sufficient food for their families, and, once subsistence has been achieved, on marketing any surplus production for cash income. In considering the full impact of agriculture on GDP it is necessary to recognize that the value of food directly consumed by farmers and their families is often not taken into account when evaluating agriculture’s contribution to national GDP and overall economic output levels.

Significant investments are needed to make the transition from both the industrial farming practices of the developed world and from the more traditional, low productivity practices common in the developing world to more sustainable and equitable food production systems. Neither industrial nor traditional farming practices are projected to be sustainable over the long term (i.e. through the end of this century). This paper intends to provide an initial investigation of whether the implementation of greener farming practices (including, among others, organic and ecological agriculture) would result in a productive and sustainable agricultural sector that also creates new and rewarding jobs across the entire food system.