Current Geological Reserves are sufficient to attain global decarbonization - innovation and tech needed to meet future demand

The large future buildout of new electricity generation infrastructure will require significant raw materials. However, while the minerals and heavy industrial sectors remain relatively carbon intensive, the emissions associated with sourcing raw materials for power sector generation infrastructure represent a small fraction of remaining carbon budgets across all scenarios tested. Global mineral reserves should adequately meet needs posed by power sector material demand. However, estimated future demand could consume a meaningful fraction of current annual production for many raw materials and may necessitate expansion of global production by severalfold for certain inputs like Nd, fiberglass, Dy, solar-grade polysilicon, and Te. Energy system design affects future material demand, with scenarios that deploy higher shares of wind and solar generation requiring larger quantities of material. Projected needs highlight the importance of proactive efforts to develop new mineral production, particularly considering the long lead times required to establish new supply chains.7 Public climate policies should support new mineral resource development for clean technologies while enforcing accountability, promoting community and labor engagement, and requiring responsible technical practices to prevent inequitable economic, health, or environmental impacts.8,10,50,51 Most material-associated emissions result from the high demand for solar-grade polysilicon, as well as bulk materials such as steel, cement, and Cu that are commonly required across most generation technologies. Proactive industrial sector decarbonization efforts alongside the process of power sector decarbonization can help avoid some of these material-associated emissions. Recycling and innovation to reduce material demand could play meaningful roles in cutting future requirements for individual raw materials50 but will not change the overall anticipated increase in material demand. With the power sector becoming a sizable industrial consumer of some inputs, the mining and mineral processing sector will consequently play a crucial role in supporting the clean energy transition. Nevertheless, researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders should endeavor to improve material efficiency and recycling practices to marginally reduce future mineral needs. As this modeling analysis illustrates, estimates of future material demands from clean energy technologies may vary widely across scenarios due to differing assumptions and technology selections. While an increasing number of studies have begun to examine material requirements associated not just with power generation infrastructure but also transmission and distribution networks, energy storage systems, and clean vehicles,26,35,36,37,52 approaches that assess material needs for a range of scenarios can help constrain the key drivers and upper and lower bounds of future material demand. With the research community’s understanding of the magnitude of future material demand for clean technologies coalescing, a shift in focus to explore the effect of technological improvements, material substitution, recycling, and alternative technological choices can help identify promising solutions.