Aff eliminates rate increases—economics and empirics prove they cause people to choose less schooling.

In choosing between school enrollment and employment, and in choosing among different employment options, individuals must take into account the different career paths that would result from the various options. Choosing to enroll in school reflects a judgment that the future wage gains generated by increased human capital (and any nonwage benefits of schooling) exceed the opportunity cost of tuition and forgone earnings. Similarly, some jobs confer experience and training (or prospects for internal advancement) that is especially valuable, and that may compensate for lower wages (Postel Vinay and Robin 2002). A job guarantee could have different types of effects on workers’ long-term career outcomes. On the one hand, a guaranteed job might attract individuals who would otherwise have obtained more schooling: by making it easier to immediately obtain employment, a job guarantee lowers the appeal of school enrollment. An empirical literature has examined this effect in the context of minimum wage laws, which may reduce school enrollment to an extent (Neumark and Wascher 2007). In a very different context, the recent surge in oil and gas extraction and associated increase in labor demand for low-skilled workers raised the male high school dropout rate by 0.3 percentage points in the average labor market with shale reserves (Cascio and Narayan 2015). The extent to which a job guarantee would reduce the incentives for human capital accumulation depends on the attractiveness of the program and whether there are any advantages (e.g., pay, working conditions, etc.) in the program for those with more skills.