Climate change is inevitable.

∂ Two separate studies published online Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change found Earth will be warmer by at least 2 degrees by the year 2100. The main difference between the two analyses of climate change was that one used Fahrenheit and the other Celsius to predict the rise in global temperatures.∂ ∂ One study, led by researchers from University of Washington (UW), used statistical tools and concluded there was “only a 5 percent chance that Earth will warm 2 degrees [Celsius] or less by the end of this century. It shows a mere 1 percent chance that warming could be at or below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], the target set by the 2016 Paris Agreement.”∂ ∂ UW’s Adrian Raftery, who led the research for the , said in a statement Monday the 2 degree Celsius rise was a best-case scenario which was achievable only if there was a concerted and massive effort across all fronts to achieve that goal for the next 80 years. The researchers’ analysis shows an overwhelming 90 percent chance of temperatures going up by anywhere between 2 and 4.9 degrees Celsius by 2100.∂ “Our analysis is compatible with previous estimates, but it finds that the most optimistic projections are unlikely to happen. We’re closer to the margin than we think,” Raftery said in .∂ For their projections, the researchers used three factors that affect future emissions: the total human population of the planet, gross domestic product per person, and carbon intensity, which is a measure of carbon emission for each dollar of economic activity. Statistical projections were made on the basis of data for the last 50 years.∂ Earth’s population is expected to reach 11 billion by the year 2100, according to the projections, an almost 50 percent increase from the current world population. But since most of this growth is expected to come from Africa, where fossil fuel consumption is low, the researchers found this factor to be only a minor one in their projections.∂ The biggest factor was found to be carbon intensity, which has been dropping in recent years due to increased energy efficiency across industries. But the study found “a wide range of possible values of carbon intensity over future decades, depending on technological progress and countries’ commitments to implementing changes.”∂ Based on various projections, the study, titled “Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely,” found a median value of 3.2 degrees Celsius for global temperature rise by 2100.