India—taiwan invasion destroys US credibility

Noah Buchan, "The world after a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan," Taipei Times, 7-14-2023, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2023/07/14/2003803158-- 嘉玮

INDIA — UNRELIABLE PARTNER

Whereas the contributors from Japan, South Korea and Australia say that the US as a regional security guarantor would be called into question after Taiwan’s fall, the contributor from India, Jabin Jacob, already sees the US as an unreliable security partner, which would play a key role in how New Delhi would respond.

“It remains somewhat of a default position in India that the US cannot be relied on and that in the case of any outbreak in hostilities with China, India would be on its own,” writes Jacob, associate professor at the Shiv Nadar University and an adjunct research fellow at the National Maritime Foundation.

Jacob says that India “remains dismissive of feelers or requests from the Taiwanese side” to receive more international recognition, and the bilateral relationship does not have weight or depth to allow India to take risks to commit to Taiwan as an international actor.

Consequently, a successful invasion of Taiwan by China would change little in the burgeoning bilateral relationship, though it would have implications on a range of other issues.

Jacob finds it significant that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has never reached a consensus on Chinese threats, even though Beijing has been New Delhi’s primary security challenge for many years. BJP voters, he adds, have always considered Pakistan and Indian Muslims as more immediate concerns. China doesn’t fire up the average Indian voter, which means military reforms to improve Indian military capabilities “have lagged dangerously.”

“Simply put,” Jacob writes, “the ‘reclaiming’ of Taiwan by China will likely not generate the necessary pressures within the Indian political establishment to focus on the threat posed by China.”

India would view Taiwan’s fall as directly linked to the diplomatic and military failures of the US, because Washington failed to meet its obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act. India would be concerned about the long-term reliability of other US partners like Japan, Australia and South Korea in political projects like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and other concerns such as its substantial trade in the South China Sea.

Further, efforts to diplomatically and economically integrate South Asia with India will be undermined, especially its national security. India’s ability to manage Beijing will be shaken considerably and likely increase the likelihood of flareups along the Line of Actual Control between China and India.

“India, far from being a ‘leading power,’ will likely become a ‘receding power’ — worried constantly about threats to its territory from an ascendant China,” Jacob writes.