Korea—end of US east Asian hegemony, nuclear prolif, emboldens north korea

Noah Buchan, "The world after a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan," Taipei Times, 7-14-2023, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2023/07/14/2003803158-- 嘉玮

SOUTH KOREA — EMBOLDENED NORTH

Kim Du-yeon, an adjunct senior fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, says that four key factors determine how South Korea would react to the loss of Taiwan: a moderate or conservative government in power, US-South Korea relations, China-South Korea relations and the actions of North Korea. Like previous contributors, Kim says both outcomes would be negative in terms of how Seoul perceives US security commitments and its interest in obtaining a nuclear deterrent.

Kim writes that the majority of the South Korean public and policy establishment aren’t paying attention to events taking place across the Taiwan Strait. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the South Korean public aware that conflicts in a different region are linked to their daily life, which has forced democratic countries to sharpen their support for liberal democratic values against emboldened authoritarian states. That being said, the South Korean public would probably oppose its military’s involvement in a Taiwan crisis.

Kim says that China’s successful takeover of Taiwan could result in two outcomes. The first sees China become an aggressive and coercive hegemon in the region. Although some experts that Kim interviewed believe that South Korean goods could still pass through the Taiwan Strait, confrontation in the waters of Northeast Asia would likely occur, leading to significant concerns over freedom of navigation and intelligence-gathering efforts.

Kim writes that the second outcome sees China engage in a charm offensive, or “smile diplomacy.” China would engage Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries to prevent international isolation and sanctions. Allies and partners of the US could accommodate China either out of fear of retribution or survival.

Regardless of either two outcomes, many in South Korea would believe that Washington could no longer be trusted to live up to its security guarantees. A conservative government in Seoul could begin serious discussions on ways to develop nuclear weapons. An isolationist government in Washington could add weight to Seoul’s decision to go nuclear.

A third consideration involves North Korea. Kim says Taiwan’s fall would likely embolden North Korea to be more aggressive, both politically and militarily — especially if the US committed its 25,000 troops based in South Korea to a Taiwan contingency — regardless of the aforementioned two actions.

Kim says that South Korean officials need to have frank conversations with the US about what their role in a Taiwan conflict would be (“strategic clarity”), particularly in the context of a changing liberal democratic international order. Government officials must also engage in frank discussion with the South Korean public about what their country’s role would be if China successfully invaded Taiwan.