Dollar heg is key to LIO—relative weakening trades off with dominance

Carla Norrlöf, "Dollar dominance: Preserving the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency," Atlantic Council, 6-8-2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/testimony/dollar-dominance-preserving-the-us-dollars-status-as-the-global-reserve-currency/-- 嘉玮

The extent of US dollar dominance and its preservation has become a principal theater for the great power struggle between the United States, China, and Russia—placing the future of liberal international order in the balance. The dollar is the only truly global currency in the world, and is widely used for transactions, pricing, settlement, and investment by governments and private actors outside the United States. These roles offer the United States economic, political, and social privileges. Economically, Americans benefit from the ease and convenience of transacting in dollars, from seigniorage, monetary flexibility, and safe-haven benefits in times crisis. Politically, the dollar offers the United States a non-military instrument of coercion with which to police international order. Socially, the United States gains status and prestige. Preserving the dollar’s status as the global currency is therefore in the United States’ interest, and potentially in other countries’ interest.

Dollar dominance refers to the disproportionate use of dollars in the world economy, a condition which has prevailed during the entire postwar era. The absolute dominance of the dollar is unlikely to change in decades to come, though the dollar’s relative dominance has receded from peak levels. Even though the dollar remains dominant, a relative weakening of the dollar’s status is considered a harbinger of the long-term power shift to the East, hastening the onset of a multipolar order in which the United States is less capable and less influential.