Climate change is not extinsential.
Yoder & Osaka 20 — Shannon Osaka, climate reporter for The Washington Post, Kate Yoder, news editor at Grist, a nonprofit environmental news site in Seattle, 2020 (“Climate change is a catastrophe. But is it an ‘existential threat’?,” Grist, March 3rd, Available Online at https://grist.org/climate/is-the-climate-crisis-an-existential-threat-scientists-weigh-in/, Accessed on 07-20-23)
Some climate scientists think that calling climate change an existential threat is misleading. “I don’t think it’s an existential threat to humanity or ‘life on Earth,’” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Grist. “There’s this popular notion that there’s some level of warming after which the warming becomes self-sustaining, which is actually not our understanding as physical scientists of how the climate system works.”
Scientists have long known that climate change may have “tipping points,” levels of warming at which certain parts of the climate system, like ice sheets or coral reefs, will not be able to recover. Though it’s true that passing any of these tipping points would mean a substantial increase in warming, as far as scientists know, none of them will create a situation in which the planet must keep warming forever. (Put another way, Earth isn’t Venus — which famously had a greenhouse effect so strong that it evaporated the planet’s oceans.)
It’s still true that climate change could cause serious and potentially catastrophic consequences. In extreme scenarios, it could mean large-scale transformations of human society. It could also threaten the existence of particular countries, cities, or groups. “I do think climate change poses an existential threat to specific demographics of people and to specific species and ecosystems,” Swain said. “And that really should concern us greatly.”
The problem with the existential threat narrative is that it might reinforce a sense that it’s too late to do — well, anything. Some activist groups, like the U.K.-based Extinction Rebellion, have managed to turn fear of human demise into a call to action. But they have also received criticism for, among other things, telling school children that the risk of climate change means they may not live to adulthood. Such scary messages might push people into eco-anxiety, or worse, paralysis.
“I’m seeing more and more of this eco-anxiety immobilizing people to the point of just giving up, or saying there’s nothing that we can do,” said Jacquelyn Gill, a professor of climate science at the University of Maine.
Swain similarly reported receiving phone calls and emails from young people “essentially telling me that they feel various levels of depression or fear or anxiety over the fact that they’re going to die soon because of climate change.” Though these students are likely a small subset of the population, their concern still shows how the fear of human extinction has run wild in certain groups.
Gill argues that activists and members of the public need to stop thinking about climate change as an “on-off switch” — either doomed or not doomed — and move toward thinking of it more like a “dimmer switch.”