The main variable he investigates is public support which does not matter
Uriel Abulof 13, Princeton University and Tel-Aviv University, “Nuclear Diversion Theory and Legitimacy Crisis: The Case of Iran” Politics & Policy, Volume 41, No. 5 (2013): 690-722
At the heart of the presumed linkage between patriotism and support for leadership lies the identification of the flag with its current carrier and the belief that rallying around the former bestows public support upon the latter—as if by ousting the flag carrier, the flag will inevitably fall, and with it the nation as a whole. Note again, however, that what matters is not whether patriotism—even if engendered by nuclear diversion—would confer public support on the leadership; in fact, the linkage between the two is far from self-evident, as Churchill’s loss of the 1945 U.K. election half-anecdotally suggests. What matters is that this linkage is strongly believed (we are surprised by Churchill’s domestic defeat in the aftermath of defeating the Nazis) and that leaders might act upon this belief, even if it is largely wishful thinking.