Debt fight was a modest win for McCarthy.
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux et al. 6/2, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux is a senior reporter for FiveThirtyEight; Geoffrey Skelley is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight; Monica Potts is a senior politics reporter at FiveThirtyEight; Kaleigh Rogers is FiveThirtyEight’s technology and politics reporter, “Who Gave Up More In The Debt Ceiling Negotiations: Biden Or Republicans?,” FiveThirtyEight, 6/2/23, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-gave-up-more-in-the-debt-ceiling-negotiations-biden-or-republicans/
Monica Potts (Monica Potts, senior politics reporter): I was a bit surprised to see how much of the support for the deal came from Democrats: 165 Democrats voted for it, while only 149 Republicans did, and 71 Republicans opposed it (compared to 46 Democrats). It’s hard to see how it would have passed without Democratic support, and Kevin McCarthy’s leadership was already shaky. I wonder what this will mean within McCarthy’s own caucus, that he couldn’t get enough support from his own party to pass it without Democratic help.
geoffrey.skelley: The spin from all directions was interesting yesterday. You had a fair amount of press coverage — and many Republicans — casting the vote as proof that McCarthy can successfully lead a narrow House majority after he struggled to become speaker back in January. But then you had other right-wing voices suggesting the vote was proof that McCarthy is weak because the legislation passed with even more Democratic votes. I suspect it is too early to know for sure! A final judgment on this episode may rest on whether the party’s right flank attempts to force McCarthy out via a motion to vacate the chair, and if such an action receives significant support among the broader GOP caucus.
But at the end of the day, McCarthy did get roughly two-thirds of his caucus to back a debt ceiling hike, which is an accomplishment given the rhetoric from some in the party who opposed the agreement. (Although that kind of talk is sometimes bluster.) Really, though, McCarthy was always going to need some Democratic votes to get this over the line. That’s frustrating to members on the far right, but an actual bipartisan deal was never going to get their unabashed approval.
ameliatd: So is this a win for McCarthy? Or not?
geoffrey.skelley: Based on what I laid out above, I guess my early view is that it’s a win for McCarthy. But the size of the win is yet to be determined.
kaleigh: It’s a modest win for McCarthy. A modest but perhaps slightly larger win for Biden.