A UBI won’t increase growth because it increases taxes, which offsets any potential economic gains.
Hughes, 2023 - Founder of Bull Oak Capital, an investment advisory firm [Ryan, Jan 27, “Universal Basic Income is a Bad Idea” https://bulloakcapital.com/blog/universal-basic-income-is-a-bad-idea/ Acc 3/23/23 TA]
INCREASES TAXES OR FEDERAL DEFICIT? In the U.S., the Roosevelt Institute think tank says that a $1,000 a month payment would grow the economy by $2.5 trillion by 2025 if paid for by increasing the federal deficit. On the other hand, if the UBI were paid for with taxes, there would be no net benefit to the economy. However, net wealth is not created by simply redistributing money from one class of people to another. Wealth is created by increased labor, trade, and innovation. As such, I have difficulty believing that UBI could grow the economy by $2.5T. As stated earlier, Bridgewater Associates conducted a study in 2018, which found the cost of a $1,000/mo stipend to every adult in the U.S. would run approximately $3.81T per year. The simple math of taxing Americans $3.8T annually to gain zero economic boost does not add up.