Nuclear winter isn’t existential
Ord – same one - 20, research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, has advised the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the World Economic Forum, and the UK Prime Minister’s Office and Cabinet Office. (Toby, “4. Anthropogenic Risks”, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Oxford)
For all that, nuclear winter appears unlikely to lead to our extinction. No current researchers on nuclear winter are on record saying that it would and many have explicitly said that it is unlikely.38 Existential catastrophe via a global unrecoverable collapse of civilization also seems unlikely, especially if we consider somewhere like New Zealand (or the southeast of Australia) which is unlikely to be directly targeted and will avoid the worst effects of nuclear winter by being coastal. It is hard to see why they wouldn't make it through with most of their 39 technology (and institutions) intact.