The rate-hike pause is key to sustaining investment in emerging market economies

Investors are piling into emerging market stocks and bonds at a near-record rate, as falling inflation and the reopening of China’s sprawling economy help reverse last year’s slide. Emerging equity and debt markets have attracted $1.1bn a day in net new money this week, according to high-frequency data tracking 21 countries from the Institute of International Finance. The speed of cross-border flows is now second only to the surge that followed the lifting of coronavirus lockdowns in late 2020 and early 2021, surpassing previous peaks over the past two decades. The strong inflows underscore a big shift in sentiment this year after a grim performance for developing markets for much of 2022. Falling global inflation has led many market participants to bet that major developed market central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will soon stop increasing interest rates — relieving a major source of pain for emerging markets. Jahangir Aziz, an analyst at JPMorgan, said there was “a lot of gas in the tank” for a further rebound in inflows now that key economic uncertainties that weighed down emerging markets “are lifting”.