Growth is fragile AND economic spending cuts social services, sparking instability
Tyler Beckelman 21, Director of International Partnerships at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Master’s Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University, BA in Political Science, International Studies, and Economics from Macalester College, and Amanda Long, Senior International Partnerships Assistant at the U.S. Institute of Peace, BA in International Relations and Global Studies from the University of Texas at Austin, “A New U.S. Approach to Help Fragile States Amid COVID-Driven Economic Crisis”, United States Institute of Peace, 3/5/2021, https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/03/new-us-approach-help-fragile-states-amid-covid-driven-economic-crisis
Without a financial lifeboat, a prolonged economic and fiscal crisis will make fragile states even more fragile.
The ability of governments to spend their way to recovery is considerably strained; highly indebted regimes must confront the difficult choice of servicing debt payments or scaling up spending on social services like health care, infrastructure, and education, with most nations forced to reduce investments in services just as they’re needed most. Diminished spending on services results in widening inequality, declining trust in government, and further erosion of the social contract. With more than three-quarters of the population classified as “extremely poor” in fragile states, the potential for new waves of civil resistance, insecurity—and repression—is considerable.