Ukraine thumps.
Goldstein ’23 [Eytan; February 24; government contractor from Rhode Island, journalist in international affairs focusing on East Asia and Russia, “Eclipsed, Again: Russia’s Northern Sea Route Will Have to Wait,” Harvard International Review, https://hir.harvard.edu/eclipsed-again-russias-northern-sea-route-will-have-to-wait/]
Besides triggering a new Cold War and realigning supply routes across the globe, Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 also resulted in a complete halt on shipping across the Northern Trade Route. With Western companies ostensibly concerned with European security in the wake of Putin’s destabilizing war, Chinese shipping companies are also staying away from the route. These all may potentially be geopolitical efforts to avoid American and European sanction penalties. With Russia’s international isolation deepening, the window on the Northern Sea Route’s development as a trading route may enter a dormant phase. While trade on the route survived Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, not only will trade stop on the route in the near future, but also actually last into the long term. Some analysts believe that Russia is well on its way to considerable international isolation—particularly in the realm of trade. Most of the selling point of the NSR for Russia is that it can play a vital role in facilitating the transport of goods to Europe. Yet, with European leaders already looking to drastically reduce their reliance on Russian energy, it seems unlikely that they will open the door to Kremlin-sponsored trade. Therefore, the EU’s pivot from criticism to resistance regarding Putin’s regime marks more than a temporary suspension of trade.