Arctic’s 5% under optimistic estimates.
Humpert ’23 [Malte; June 20; Senior Fellow and Founder of the Arctic Institute, “The Future of the Northern Sea Route — A ‘Golden Waterway’ or a Niche Trade Route,’ The Arctic Institute, Center for Circumpolar Security Studies, https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/future-northern-sea-route-golden-waterway-niche/]
Researchers and shipping experts, however, remain skeptical about the commercial viability of the NSR. Canadian and American maritime experts say two percent of global shipping could be diverted to the Arctic by 2030, reaching 5 percent by 2050. Experts cite a number of factors which may determine the future growth of shipping in the Arctic. This series about the Northern Sea Route will explore how global trade dynamics and world trade patterns, the severity and speed of ice decline, fuel cost savings and transit fees, Russia’s Arctic natural resources development, and the emergence of China, South Korea and Japan as Arctic maritime nations, may influence the development of the NSR.