Risk of overheating leading to recession --- housing market is key

(“Does the U.S. risk another housing market fall?,” pg online @ //um-ef)

It has been unusual for economic expansions to last more than a few years after the economy reaches full employment, which it now has, and the country should remain on the lookout for early signs of imbalances whose reversal eventually could trigger the next recession. With the recent events of 2007-2009 still lingering on investors’ minds and nominal housing prices now exceeding their peaks from 2006, the housing market is an obvious place to look for signs of overheating. In this research report, we highlight specific pockets of overheating in detailed data on U.S. counties. For example, high prices, despite expanding supply, such as in Denver, Seattle, Washington, D.C., Portland, Oregon, and Boston indicate some correction risk in J.P. Morgan’s models. Cities with staggering high prices, such as New York City and the San Francisco Bay Area, suggest some chance of correction even with constrained supply. But there is currently no place with the same combination of rapid price growth, rapid debt growth, and expanding supply seen in some areas in 2006.