Trade and exports are perceived to be high now, but on the brink.
Allianz 6/1, Global Survey about Trade, "Allianz Trade Global Survey 2023: Testing resilience," https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/global-trade-survey.html
In our 2023 Allianz Trade Global Survey, we decided to check the pulse of companies in seven countries – the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Over three weeks to mid-April, we surveyed a sample of high-level executives in around 3,000 companies that have export activities and suppliers and production sites located in foreign countries.
Exporters remain cautiously optimistic. Roughly 70% of corporates expect business turnover generated through exports to increase in 2023 (against close to 80% in the 2022 edition and 94% before the start of the war in Ukraine). One in two exporters sees a moderate turnover increase, between +2% and +5%, down from the double-digit turnover growth registered in 2022. This compares with our latest global trade growth forecasts for 2023: +0.7% in volume terms and -0.1% in value terms. Companies in the countries most affected by the energy crisis are the least optimistic, with Germany, Poland and Italy being the most pessimistic.