Bioterror threat increases now---new tech, experience, and access all prove.

Recent developments in biotechnology may, however, give people the capability to design pathogens which overcome this trade-off. Some gain-of-function research has demonstrated the feasibility of altering pathogens to create strains with dangerous new features, such as vaccine-resistant smallpox 40 and human-transmissible avian flu, 41 with the potential to kill millions or even billions of people. For an engineered pathogen to derail humanity’s long-term future, it would probably have to have extremely high fatality rates or destroy reproductive capability (so that it killed or prevented reproduction by all or nearly all of its victims), be extremely infectious (so that it had global reach), and have delayed onset of symptoms (so that we would fail to notice the problem and mount a response in time).42 Making such a pathogen would be close to impossible at present. However, the cost of the technology is falling rapidly,43 and adequate expertise and modern laboratories are becoming more available. Consequently, states and perhaps even terrorist groups could eventually gain the capacity to create pathogens which could deliberately or accidentally cause an existential catastrophe.