Bunkers, submarines, isolated groups.

3. Where would people be especially likely to survive a global catastrophe?

Government bunkers for private citizens, government bunkers for continuity of government, shelters purchased by private citizens, people working on submarines, and people living in remote locations would be especially likely to survive a global catastrophe. Examining these unintentional refuges will help us assess to what extent creating refuges of the type proposed above—or other types of refuges—would increase the chances of recovery from a global catastrophe.

A brief note on terminology: “Bunker” and “shelter” seem to be used largely interchangeably, but “bunker” is more often used to describe large shelters built by the government. Government buildings, including bunkers, designed to withstand severe stress are sometimes called “hardened facilities.” Private shelter providers tend to use “shelter” to describe their products, and this document follows that usage when describing their products. In this paper, “refuge” is used roughly to mean “place specifically designed to be especially likely to survive a global catastrophe and aid in the subsequent recovery.”

3.1. Government bunkers for private citizens

As of 1986, the reference Nuclear War Survival Skills (Kearny, 1986) judged that, “Switzerland has the best civil defense system, one that already includes blast shelters for over 85 percent of all its citizens.” They have 300,000 communal bunkers, which another source claims is enough for the entire Swiss population of 7.6 million, with a million spaces to spare. These bunkers are stocked with 4.5 months of food and basic fuel. In addition, a 1978 law requires all residential buildings to have a fallout shelter capable of withstanding a 12-megaton explosion at a distance of 700 m or pay a fee. However, people building single-family homes typically pay the fee instead of building the shelters (Ball, 2011).

3.2. Continuity of government bunkers

“Continuity of government” bunkers exist in at least Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, Russia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United Sates. This section will briefly discuss what kind of bunkers exist in the United States.

During the Cold War, the US government spent billions of dollars to build a network of bunkers designed to preserve continuity of government in the event of a nuclear strike against the US, the full extent of which is still unknown (Hodge and Weinberger, 2008, p. 134). Much information about continuity of government bunkers is classified—one report suggests that even members of Congress can’t get the full details of the plan (Kosseff, 2007)—and this makes it difficult to know much about their current capabilities. Some known continuity of government bunkers include Cheyenne Mountain, Mount Weather, Raven Rock (also known as “Site R,” see Hodge and Weinberger (2008, p. 133)), and U.S. Strategic Command. Additional bunkers are rumored to exist underneath the White House and at the Camp David Presidential retreat in Maryland (Hodge and Weinberger 2008, p. 132). Project Greek Island was a top secret bunker, built underneath the Greenbrier resort in Western Virginia, that would be used to house members of Congress in the event of a nuclear strike. It was exposed by a journalist in 1993 and is no longer in operation. This suggests the possibility of other bunkers that might be off of the public record.

One concern about the effectiveness of these bunkers is that if people were notified that nuclear missiles were en route to the US, there may not be enough time for people to get inside of the bunkers. Another possible concern is that they would not have an appropriate gender mix to repopulate civilization. Mount Weather was initially built as an all-male facility.

Historically, continuity of government bunkers were built primarily with nuclear war in mind, but people managing these bunkers have begun to consider threats like pandemic influenza (Hodge and Weinberger 2008, p. 137–138, 141, 150).

3.3. Shelters purchased by private citizens

As of 2010, Radius Engineering, 2014a, Radius Engineering, 2014b—a private shelter provider—had built 1100 shelters, about a third of which were in the Washington, DC area (Patrol Log, 2010). Radius Engineering estimates that 10,000 people on three continents have access to their shelters. Radius Engineering describes the capability of their shelters as follows: