People are resilient

The young man clearly believed that there would never be another generation of millennials. He expressed the sunny view that long before the year 3,000, Homo sapiens would wipe itself out. “Totally,” to use his vernacular. I was at a San Francisco salon when he ticked off his chart-topping threats to our existence: climate change, killer viruses, and the ever-popular default, nuclear war. These were not simply worrisome problems, but relentless terrors that will purge us from the planet, he said. Abandon all hope ye who enter the 21st century. ADVERTISEMENT To this I say “chill.” Despite our best efforts, we’re not going to wipe ourselves out. That’s because apocalypse is well-nigh impossible. We’re like ants: We’re vulnerable to being killed en masse, but the species will survive because, like ants, we’re numerous and dispersed. No matter how many supposedly humanity-ending threats you hurl—literally, in the case of ballistic missiles—humans will continue to crawl the Earth. This comfort may be cold, but it’s still a fact. Consider the enumerated threats, beginning with a pandemic. A century ago, the Spanish flu caused a staggering 20-50 million deaths, more than WWI. Still, the toll amounted to less than 3% of the world population. As ghastly as it was, the Spanish flu didn’t even rise to the level of decimation; viruses can slay, but they can’t annihilate. If past mortality is prologue, a millennial has less chance of succumbing to a new pandemic than dying in an auto accident. OK, well what about climate change, now recognized as a non-hoax by 75% of Americans? It’s not the heat per se that will waste us, but the knock-on effects. Low-lying nations will turn into aquariums and Caribbean countries will be pummeled and pelted by savage storms. The economic disruptions will be severe, including ones you might not have considered, such as the damage to your investment portfolio: Five of the world’s 10 largest companies are in the fossil-fuel business. ADVERTISEMENT The World Health Organization estimates that between 2030 and 2050, 5 million people will perish due to the consequences of climate change. Nonetheless, if aliens visit Earth in 2050, they’ll still find billions of humans. Indeed, probably more than walk the planet today. Despite our best efforts, we’re not going to wipe ourselves out. OK, but what about the mother of all catastrophes, massive nuclear war? The world’s militaries currently have more than 10,000 nuclear weapons teed up. Let’s dismiss the possibility that diplomacy or common sense will continue to fend off their use, and assume that, one fine day, all adversaries push their respective buttons. Let’s further suppose that only one weapon is dispatched to any particular urban area; that none of the missiles ever misfire or are intercepted; and—just to remain consistently dark—that the bombs are 100% effective, killing each and every inhabitant of the target city and its immediate surroundings. (The actual fraction in Hiroshima was about 30%.) The simplest and deadliest scenario is that the world’s 10,000 most populous urban areas will be targeted and thoroughly obliterated. This includes all cities the size of Sheboygan, Wisconsin, or larger. Each will witness its own deadly mushroom cloud, and destruction by both blast and radiation. ADVERTISEMENT A rough estimate indicates that the total complement of humans in those 10,000 cities is about 1.6 billion. No one could argue that the death of so many people—more than were alive at the start of the 20th century—would be anything less than an unprecedented horror. But even if the missiles were to fly tomorrow, there would still be 6 billion people on the planet next month. And they could eventually pick up the pieces. The knowledge that built modern society would still be extant. We can’t nuke ourselves back to the Stone Age.