Movements will literally overthrow recalcitrant governments. Nuclear use makes the audience costs huge.

CATASTROPHE AND THE END OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS In the year 2025, the world very nearly came to an end. Smarting after several years of economic downturn and angry at American efforts to encircle it with NATO bases, Russia responded to a "plea" for help from co-ethnics in the Baltic states. Thousands of Russian troops, disguised as contract "volunteers" dashed across international borders allegedly to protect Russian speakers from governmental assaults. The Baltic countries invoked Article 5 of the NATO Treaty while American forces, deployed there precisely to deter this kind of aggression, clashed with Russian troops. Hundreds of Americans were killed. Washington warned Moscow to halt its invasion to no avail. The United States then prepared for a major airlift of its forces to the beleaguered countries, with Moscow threatening America with "unrestrained force" if it followed through. Washington ignored the threat and Moscow, seeking to "de-escalate by escalating," destroyed the American base of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean with a nuclear-armed cruise missile. The United States responded with limited nuclear strikes against Russian bases in Siberia. Thus far, the collateral damage had been kept to a minimum, but this bit of encouragement did not last. Fearing a massive American pre-emptive strike aimed at disarming its nuclear arsenal, Russia struck first against the range of US nuclear forces both in the United States and at sea. America responded with its surviving weapons, destroying much (but not all) of the remaining Russian nuclear arms. And then, both sides took a breather, but it was too late. Although cities had been largely spared, millions had died on each side. Making matters worse, predictions of nuclear winter came to pass - producing massive changes in the weather and killing millions more, especially in developing states. The world finally had enough. A dawning realization emerged that leaders of countries simply could not be trusted with weapons that could destroy humankind.3 Protests swept the globe calling for total disarmament. Mass demonstrations engulfed the United States and Russia demanding the replacement of their existing governments with ones committed to ending nuclear weapons. Voices calling for more moderate disarmament that would preserve a modest nuclear deterrent were angrily (and sometimes violently) quashed. The possession of nuclear weapons became morally repugnant and unacceptable. No longer were the intricacies of nuclear doctrine or force levels subject to debate. The only question remaining was how one could get rid of these loathsome weapons as quickly as possible. Under the auspices of the United Nations, a joint committee composed of the Security Council members, other countries known to possess nuclear arms, and several non-nuclear powers was established. Drawing on the structure and precedent of the Chemical Weapons Convention, this UN body drew up the Treaty that called for the complete disarmament of nuclear arms by 2030. The development, possession, and use of nuclear weapons was prohibited. An airtight inspection regime, enhancing the procedures already in existence through the Non-Proliferation Treaty, was established to first account for all nuclear arms and fissile material and then monitor the destruction of the nuclear weaponry. All countries were subject to the Treaty, whether they maintained nuclear facilities or not. Violations would produce a range of punishment from global economic sanctions to massive conventional attack.' 6 By 2030, all the nations of the world had agreed to the Treaty. No violations occurred. Armed conflicts persisted, but they proved to be of modest scale, erupting only within countries but not between them. Insofar as the fear of nuclear weapons helped keep the peace during the Cold War and post-Cold War eras, the horror of nuclear use now made war all but unthinkable. A feeling of relief swept the globe as the specter of nuclear holocaust vanished, tempered only by the painful regret that it took the death of millions to realize a goal that for so many had been self-evident since 1945