Meeting climate goals will require significantly more critical minerals

The past few years have seen ambitious, game-changing climate action from the United States. The Biden administration set a goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, and recent legislation — including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and a newly proposed EPA regulation to supercharge EV adoption — puts the U.S. within striking distance of its target.

But securing enough critical minerals to support a nationwide low-carbon transition poses a serious challenge.

Critical minerals such as lithium, graphite, rare earth elements and cobalt are essential building blocks for a clean economy; they are used in wind turbines and solar panels, EV batteries and motors, renewable energy transmission and more. At present, the United States is reliant on imports for virtually all of these minerals. China controls the processing of key minerals and rare earth elements, which many see as a significant threat to the security of U.S. supply chains. And increased mining poses environmental and health risks both abroad and in the U.S., where many known critical mineral reserves are located in close proximity to Indigenous lands.

These issues have some stakeholders wondering if the supply of critical minerals could become a major bottleneck for the United States to achieve its climate goals. The U.S. must take action now to minimize these risks, secure its supply chains and drive responsible sourcing of critical minerals. Here’s what to know.

What Are Critical Minerals?

In the United States, critical minerals are those that are essential for U.S. national or economic security. These can be used in military equipment or in technology that will drive the economy, including clean energy components such as wind turbines, solar panels and EV batteries. To be considered “critical,” there must also be a risk that the country will not be able to obtain a mineral in the necessary quantities.

Of the 50 minerals included in the U.S. critical minerals list in 2022, at least 10 are essential to the clean technology transition:

Lithium 

Cobalt 

Nickel 

Zinc 

Aluminum 

Neodymium 

Praseodymium 

Dysprosium 

Terbium 

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While copper is notably missing from the USGS list, in part due to significant U.S. copper reserves, other countries such as Canada do list copper as a critical mineral.

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How Much of These Critical Minerals Will the U.S. Need to Meet Climate Goals?

A report by the International Energy Agency found that the availability of critical minerals will need to ramp up substantially to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avert some of the worst impacts of climate change. In order to build out enough clean technology to keep global temperature rise to 1.5-2 degrees C (2.7-3.6 degrees F), demand for nickel, cobalt and graphite is expected to grow by about 20 times while lithium demand is expected to grow to 40 times its current level. Demand for rare earth elements is expected to quadruple.

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The scale of this global challenge will be felt in the United States as it uses the Inflation Reduction Act to increase clean technology development and uptake. The act includes numerous incentives to drive expansion of zero-carbon energy sources like wind and solar; production tax credits to support domestic manufacturing of these technologies; investment tax credits for zero-emission energy generation and storage facilities; incentives for Americans to decarbonize their homes through upgrades like heat pumps; tax credits for qualifying electric vehicles, and more.

Expanding renewable energy infrastructure in the U.S. and coupling it with stationary storage batteries will require significant quantities of critical minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. Likewise, the rapid shift to electric vehicles will depend on new EV batteries that require these same minerals. As the country increases its overall reliance on electricity, moreover, it will require increased transmission which calls for large amounts of copper and aluminum.