Taiwan conflict goes nuclear

Goldstein ’23 [Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Engagement at the Washington DC think tank, Defense Priorities. He is also a visiting professor at the Watson Institute for Public and International Affairs at Brown University. Goldstein previously served 20 years as research professor at the US Naval War College, where he received the Superior Civilian Service Medal for his pioneering research on Chinese military development. 3-13-2023, "The trouble with Taiwan," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-03/the-trouble-with-taiwan/, St. Mark's School of Texas, Ashrit Manduva '24]

The nuclear problem

Above all, there is a significant danger of escalation to the nuclear level in any hypothetical US-China military conflict over Taiwan. For years, China’s nuclear deterrent was generally dismissed by Western strategists as both small and backward. But this is starting to change and Washington is now quite disturbed by China’s on-going nuclear buildup. There are quite a few troubling revelations about this buildup in the Pentagon’s November 2022 report on Chinese military power. It stated that China has now surpassed 400 operational warheads and that this number could reach 1,500 by 2035. New and large ICBM fields are reportedly being constructed in northwest China, while the China’s military (known as the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA) has ramped up its navy significantly, and is said to have begun “continuous deterrence patrols” with its new force of strategic submarines. Major new steps are expected for the Chinese long-range bombers force, as well. Finally, there are strong hints of accelerating Chinese development of both missile defenses and hypersonic weaponry—and even perhaps tactical nuclear weaponry as well.

Nobody can say what would happen if two nuclear powers entered into an intense war, because this has never occurred. Nuclear powers have engaged in skirmishes, but nothing beyond that threshold, fortunately.

But would the “nuclear taboo” hold in a Taiwan conflict? Maybe yes, but maybe not. Many Western strategists have suggested that Beijing could resort to nuclear first use if its conventional forces were losing (Colby, 2021).

The possibility of a Chinese resort to nuclear weapons is noted in the recent Pentagon Report on Chinese military power (US Department of Defense 2022). Indeed, a recent Taiwan wargame by a Washington, DC, think tank did see China’s employment of a nuclear warning shot (Katz and Insinna 2022).

The inverse scenario also seems quite plausible, however. In other words, it is possible that US conventional forces could be overwhelmed in a Chinese attack on Taiwan. In that case, an American President may see nuclear weapons as the only card to play against China or as retaliation for grave US losses, for example if one or more US carriers were to be sunk. In fact, a novel that portrays a US-China war over Taiwan in 2035, written by a very senior US retired Admiral, does include such a US resort to first use and a catastrophic “trade of cities” between the two superpowers that kills millions of innocents (Ackerman and Stavridis 2021). There are also increased risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation, since artificial intelligence is playing a larger and larger role in military operations for both sides—and also both sides can now threaten early warning systems and ballistic missile defenses. The threat of nuclear catastrophe is the most disturbing of the risks attendant to a Taiwan military conflict, but there are many other risks as well: economic, asymmetric, and historic—as well as problems with alliances, and military problems.