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The Fed will slam the economy to the ground.

Zahn ’22 [Max; December 9; Reporter; ABC News, “Why the jobs boom could worsen inflation and help trigger a recession,” https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs-boom-worsen-inflation-trigger-recession/story?id=94769664; Sahil]

When facing high inflation, policymakers ultimately fear what's referred to as a price-wage spiral, in which a rise in prices prompts workers to demand raises that help them afford goods, which in turn pushes up prices, leading to a self-perpetuating cycle of runaway inflation.

"Inflation is like a cancer where if you don't derail it, it can become a fatal problem," Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG, told ABC News.

Interest rate hikes could plunge the economy into a recession

Seeing a relatively small workforce and strong wage growth, the Federal Reserve will likely continue its series of rate hikes to ward off a worst-case scenario of spiraling price increases, economists said.

While preventing a prolonged bout of inflation last seen in the 1980s, the continued interest rate hikes will put further brakes on the economy and increase the likelihood of a recession, they added.

"When the Fed comes in with higher rates, it takes the punch bowl away and the party is over," said Bovino, of S&P Global. "If the Fed has to ramp up rates even higher because of wage pressures feeding into other areas, the Fed takes the punch bowl and smashes it to the ground."

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So far, the hiring boom has withstood the Fed's effort to slow the economy. But the job market has shown signs of wobbling, such as a string of layoffs in the tech sector that has struck stalwarts like Amazon and Facebook-parent Meta.

As the economy slows, wage growth will cool and more workers will lose their jobs, but the economy will avert a more debilitating downturn, said Swonk, of KPMG. Eventually, inflation will fall to a rate below that of wage growth, no longer eating away at workers' income, she added.

"Unemployment will rise a bit – that's a hard thing, no question about it," Swonk said. "But it is better to eradicate the risk that this inflation metastasizes and we have to take a much more severe scarring, a deep and disruptive recession."

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