Immigration increases solve population growth better

By 2030, immigration is expected to overtake “natural increase,” the net population change from births and deaths, as the largest driver of population growth in the US.10 Yet, even with the recent increases in the share of the US population that is foreign- born, the growth of the foreign-born population itself has slowed significantly since the beginning of the 21st century and is expected to continue progressively slowing over the next three decades.11

Though immigrants to the US tend to cluster in a few locations, immigration has been an important part of recent US growth in many areas of the country. For instance, roughly 45 percent of immigrants in the US live in California, Texas, or New York; and nearly two-thirds of immigrants live in one of twenty different metro areas.12 According to Census Bureau estimates, between April 2010 and July of 2018, immigration was a major contributor to the growth of some of the US’s biggest and fastest growing cities— with positive net migration from abroad accounting for roughly 63 percent of the net population growth in the ten most populous metro areas and 38 percent of the growth in the ten metro areas with the greatest numeric population increase.13 However, immigrants have also been an important factor in reducing or preventing population loss in otherwise declining areas throughout the country. Over that same 2010 to 2018 period, the Census Bureau estimates that thirty-six metro areas and nine states would have lost population but for positive net migration from abroad.14 Even in the three states that declined in population over that period—Connecticut, Illinois, and West Virginia—immigration helped substantially limit population loss.15