Capitalist industry is key to space technological innovation—solves multilateralism and global cooperation

[Hanna Dooley, Landry Signé, 03-28-23, "How space exploration is fueling the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Brookings, ] WL

The decreasing costs coupled with more widespread technological adoption underpinned by the 4IR has led to an unprecedented era of accessibility for new players in the space industry, from state actors to private companies. As of 2021, the global space industry was made up of over 10,000 private space technology companies, 5,000 large investors, 130 state organizations, and 20 business sectors. Among state actors, the United States is the leader in both public space investment (at $54.6 billion in 2021—almost 60 percent of global government investment in space) and private space investment in terms of the number of companies in the industry (the United States has almost ten times as many space companies as the next country—the United Kingdom). Despite the United States maintaining its leadership in financial investment, China’s commitment to space investment as a driver for economic competitiveness has quickly catapulted the country to global leadership in space. Second to the U.S. in space investment and innovation, China spent $10.3 billion on space programs in 2021, increasing satellite launches, applications, and imagery while investing in an even more advanced telescope than the Hubble that will photograph 40% of the Earth’s sky. Beyond the U.S. and China, advanced technologies are making it easier and more enticing for new countries to enter the market. Now, 20 countries across four continents have civil space budgets of more than $100 million, while 70 countries have active space programs including more recent additions like the Philippines in 2019 and Rwanda and Costa Rica in 2021. Countries including India, South Korea, Israel, and EU members are increasingly investing in space missions, while Pakistan, Laos, Belarus, and Venezuela are purchasing satellites in collaboration with China. African countries have also invested in their space industry, now having launched the first satellite to be entirely developed in Africa. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates was applauded for being the first country of its scale to launch a scientific mission to Mars. Regional organizations are investing in space as well, with the recent addition of the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency (ALCE) joining the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO). In addition to the range of new state actors involved in space investment, the sheer number of private space companies and their capabilities showcase how much the space landscape has opened up in terms of the types of players involved—the private sector, including private companies and individual entrepreneurs, now leads the public sector in space discovery and technological application. Commercial space activity is at the center of the “modern space race,” having tripled from $110 billion to almost $357 billion from 2005 to 2020. Major players including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin have been competing to become leaders in space tourism and communications. While these major companies are leading the charge in terms of size and investment, advances in technology have made it possible for other countries to join the commercial space industry. For example, even though more traditional players such as the U.S., China, and Russia have experienced the most growth in the commercial satellite industry, now an Argentine company, Satellogic, and a Finnish company, ICEYE, are among the top five leading commercial space satellite companies. Opportunities The key trends in the space industry, due to rapid technological development, are unlocking new opportunities for more inclusive prosperity. Countries and regions that were previously left out of the space industry now have the potential to seize three main types of opportunities. First, the trends in space technology are leading to groundbreaking capabilities from space-to-Earth activities to space-to-space activities that could be of direct benefit to more players. Second, as more players are able to invest in space, they will have potential to engage in meaningful diplomacy on a global stage. This leads to the third opportunity, which is the potential for space to become an area where countries and regions can come together to advance common goals despite ongoing economic, geopolitical, or social conflicts on Earth. Because of falling launch costs, ongoing technological innovation, and growing commercialization in the space industry, opportunities abound in both the downstream segment (activities that use technology in space for services on Earth, or space-to-Earth activities) and the upstream segment (activities that send things into space, or space-to-space activities) of the space economy as changes in both segments are leading to a new, more integrated space economy. Space-to-Earth activities make up most of the space economy, with exciting societal benefits as technology advances. Already, falling launch costs have expanded potential space-to-Earth uses including optimized broadband infrastructure, enhanced earth observation capabilities, and national security satellites. Companies are also exploring how moving their operations to the lower orbit could unlock new production models. For example, in the pharmaceutical industry, medical companies in orbit could grow organs for transplant patients on Earth and manufacture new drugs in orbit that target cancer cells. New launch capabilities could even enable the use of solar factories in orbit or on the Moon that can beam solar energy back to Earth, a long-awaited goal hindered by high costs. These advances in broadband access and energy sources could be critical for countries who were left behind by previous industrial revolutions who may be able to forge a new development path by capitalizing on these space-to-earth opportunities. The space-to-space economy, primarily dominated by space-for-space transportation and manufacturing, has historically been underdeveloped due to a lack of demand to meet the high costs. Now, with more companies either looking to move their operations to space or to bring more people to space, the demand for manufacturing in space is increasing as a way to limit the time and cost it takes to transport materials from Earth. Space mining of precious metals and rare elements could become the next competitive sphere as a way to meet the demand for in-space manufacturing, which needs raw materials, metals, and water. Both the space-to-Earth and space-to-space economies will only continue to grow as new technological breakthroughs are made with the chance for developing countries to benefit. The second opportunity for more inclusive prosperity lies in the reality that, since more countries can engage and invest in the space industry at varying levels, these countries could have a stronger diplomatic voice in how the space economy is developed and regulated. As of 2022, only 11 countries have their own launch capabilities, but other countries are able to participate in other ways, such as countries like Peru and Angola who are developing their own satellites. The old “Iron Curtain” no longer exists in space as more countries are able to launch satellites into orbit, which is good news for other countries who will have more of a voice as things develop. The commercial space industry is now more accessible to new players as well. More and more countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin American are actively investing in their own private sector space industries, signaling their recognition that space has multifaceted benefits for them both economically and diplomatically. The emergence of the private space sector in other countries could mean that collaboration will be key even if there are existing tensions or vulnerabilities within governments or geopolitical relationships. This leads to the third major opportunity for inclusive development from the space industry, which is its potential for re-establishing legitimacy in multilateralism and for finding areas of common goals even amidst growing complexity between players. As countries become more reliant on one another, especially in regard to satellite communications, space diplomacy will only grow in importance. The range of possible, innovative applications of space technologies have incredible potential to help the world meet its global goals. There are so many growing opportunities for international cooperation and innovation within the space industry, especially given the strengths and advantages of certain regions whether its natural resources, capital, or enabling environments, among others, making it ripe for new types of global partnerships.