Bonds are at neutral duration now.
TJ Scavone 22, Investment Director on Cambridge Associates’ Global Investment Research Team, 4/1/2022, "Should Investors Go Long Duration Following This Year's Sell-off in US Treasuries?," https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/insight/should-investors-go-long-duration-following-this-years-sell-off-in-us-treasuries/
At the same time, the Fed tightening too much too quickly potentially increases the risk of a hard landing—a scenario that would likely cause Treasuries to rally sharply, given the negative impact to growth. In our view, the risk of recession in the United States over the next year or so seems limited. That said, some indicators suggest the risk of a recession is rising, and the recent sell-off did bring the risk/reward trade-off of holding longer-duration Treasuries more into balance. For example, assume ten-year yields increased another 60 bps to 3.5%, then ten-year Treasuries would return -1.4%. However, if ten-year yields fell 60 bps, essentially reversing the rise in yields so far this month, then ten-year Treasuries would return 8%. In addition, longer-duration Treasuries are finally beginning to look more attractive from a valuation perspective at current yields. According to our bond model, which is based on trailing ten-year nominal GDP growth and forward policy expectations, the ten-year Treasury yield is trading in line with its fair value.
While yields could go higher, particularly if future inflation data exceed expectations, yields have increased enough to warrant a neutral duration position.