Causes defense cuts
Penner ‘18
(Rudolph, Phd in economics from the Johns Hopkins University, Institute fellow at the Urban Institute, frmr assistant director for economic policy at the Office of Management and Budget, “A U.S. FISCAL CRISIS?,” pg online @ https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/99224/a_u.s._fiscal_crisis.pdf //um-ef)
The U.S. is unusual in that defense spending constitutes a significant share of its budget at 15 percent. That amounts to 3.1 % of GDP as opposed to a NATO target of 2% for its members. If a fiscal crisis comes, it is difficult to predict what may happen to the U. S. defense budget. It will very probably be cut, but the size of the cuts are likely to depend on international risks at the time. One can, of course, find waste in defense and nondefense discretionary spending and in entitlements dominated by the non-aged population, but such programs have been squeezed for decades by the inexorable growth of Social Security and health programs. Nevertheless, I would expect discretionary programs to bear some of the pain.