2022 levels solves.

A spokesperson for U.S. Sen. John Thune indicated South Dakota’s senior senator would avoid “hypotheticals” until a deal is reached, though Thune used a recent floor speech to lend his support for a House Republican priority of reducing 2024 discretionary spending back to 2022 levels.

Several national news sources indicate the two sides are narrowing in on a deal, though sticking points, like exactly how much to restrain spending in the short and long-term, remain.

But precisely how the White House and House Republicans come to a compromise — and whether it includes capping the defense portion of the government’s discretionary spending — could have an impact on South Dakota and the Ellsworth Air Force Base, which is set to receive billions in federal dollars over the next decade to develop the next-generation B-21 bombers.

“I know defense is on the table, but we want to keep in mind that it’s almost mandatory in that it’s required by the Constitution,” Rounds said. “Maintaining the nation’s defense is a core responsibility of Congress.”

On the Republican side, as Johnson laid out in his weekly column on May 26, there are three main demands: capping the federal government’s discretionary spending growth; reclaiming unspent pandemic funds and certain renewable energy-adjacent tax credits; and “growing the economy” through actions that include a welfare work requirements measure backed by Johnson.

“We are at an inflection point,” Rep. Dusty Johnson said of the $31 trillion-plus federal debt. “Business as usual will not work. And it is time to get serious now.”

Federal discretionary spending represents about one-third of total federal spending; the rest, including Social Security, Medicare and the interest on the public debt, is mandatory spending that does not need to be individually appropriated by Congress each year.

Discretionary spending can be further split into defense and nondefense spending, which includes education and low-income housing programs, among myriad other items. The most recent discretionary budget is split approximately halfway between these two categories, with $858 billion going toward defense and $772 billion toward nondefense programs.

Though Democrats have accused Republicans of wanting the bulk of discretionary cuts to come from nondefense spending, Johnson said that’s not how he’s thinking about capping discretionary spending for the purposes of negotiating a debt ceiling raise.

“I think a cap should be set overall for discretionary spending. I think that gives us the best chance of success,” he said. “I don't think we need to set hard sub-limits on defense and nondefense. I actually think it complicates the ability of the deal to get done.”

Johnson’s column further enumerated some potential red lines for House Republicans in the negotiations, writing they’ve “vowed to not raise taxes, not cut funding for veterans’ programs, and protect Social Security and Medicare.”

“We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem,” he told Forum News Service, pointing out that federal tax receipts as a percentage of total economic output are near their highest-ever levels.

In 2011, the last time an increase to the debt ceiling was accompanied by meaningful negotiations, a cap on discretionary spending growth affected both defense and nondefense spending.