Club approach fails, Trump and decline in confidence in US ensures other countries say no

For all its surface advantages, the club model of world order has drawbacks.60 First, cooperation among democracies, even on matters of security, is hardly guaranteed.61 The most obvious example is the transatlantic rift over the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, a decision that U.S. president George W. Bush’s administration took over the objection of close U.S. allies. It is hardly the only occasion when European and American leaders have not seen eye to eye. Over the past two decades, transatlantic solidarity has been repeatedly tested by disagreements over trade, digital privacy, climate policy, defense burden-sharing, and Iran’s nuclear program, among other matters. Even under the Atlanticist Biden administration, U.S. industrial policy and protectionism have raised European hackles and charges of American hypocrisy regarding the “rules-based” international order.62 Biden has pledged to restore America’s free world leadership, but U.S. partners are still reeling from his predecessor, who shook the foundations of Western solidarity by questioning the G7’s relevance, casting doubt on the United States’ commitment to collective defense within NATO, treating alliances generally as protection rackets, and expressing fawning admiration for despots.63 Given the distinct possibility that Trump or another so-called America First Republican could secure the presidency in November 2024, U.S. allies would be wise to hedge their bets against a mercurial superpower whose very commitment to democratic principles (much less to the concept of a so-called free world) is so tenuous.64 Second, in the eyes of countless foreign observers, the United States has frittered away its historical standing to speak as the leader of the democratic world, given both the selectivity of its support for freedom abroad and the fragility of its own democracy at home. Biden’s “us-versus-them” rhetoric may be bracing for some Americans; it is less persuasive to potential U.S. partners in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East who are aware of democracy’s subtle gradations and of the cold-blooded realism of actual U.S. policy, which often includes embracing (or at least fist-bumping) strongmen like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.65 Most damningly, the Trump era exposed glaring weaknesses in the constitutional guardrails against tyranny in the United States itself. For four years, Trump sought to hollow out the institutions of U.S. democracy, including checks and balances on executive power, an independent judiciary and media, and free and fair elections.66 These efforts culminated in his refusal to accept defeat and his encouragement of the January 6, 2021, insurrection to block the peaceful transfer of power to his legitimate successor. America’s radiance as a global beacon of freedom has dimmed.67