They’re declining now.
TCS 2-7 [Taxpayers for Common Sense is a nonpartisan federal budget watchdog organization based in Washington, D.C., in the United States. TCS is a 501 non-profit organization; its 501 affiliate is Taxpayers for Common Sense Action. The current president of TCS is Stephen Ellis., “2023 Farm Subsidies Expected to Drop from Recent Record Levels”, https://www.taxpayer.net/agriculture/2023-farm-subsidies-expected-to-drop-from-recent-record-levels/, 2-7-23, accessed 7-10-23]*graphs omitted <Jericho>
Government payments to agriculture are expected to decrease to $10.3 billion this year, down from $16 billion in 2022 and even higher levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. These projections are from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS). Farm income subsidies in 2023 are expected to fall to $6 billion, with an additional $4 billion directed to farm businesses participating in agricultural conservation programs.
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Approximately half of the $10.3 billion expected to flow from taxpayers to the agricultural sector will come from supplemental and ad hoc disaster aid. The taxpayer cost of unbudgeted disaster aid, arising from Congressional appropriations in response to recent hurricanes, wildfires, drought, and floods, has risen significantly over the past handful of years. These funds are separate from and in addition to taxpayer spending directed by farm bill safety net programs.
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Two other important points, which happen to cover the following farm bill titles and topics the Senate Agriculture Committee will address in a hearing this Thursday, include:
(1) Title I Commodity Subsidies: USDA-ERS expects farm commodity subsidies, which historically cost taxpayers approximately $5 billion annually, to reach just $69 million in 2023. That’s down from more than $6 billion in 2020. With these farm bill subsidies tied in whole or in part to crop prices, USDA-ERS expects higher crop prices this year to negate the need for taxpayers to fork over subsidy payments tied to low prices. Government-set minimum crop prices are known as Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and the other primary commodity program – Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) – subsidizes small dips in certain agricultural producers’ expected income each year.
(2) Title XI Crop Insurance Subsidies: USDA-ERS projections for total government payments to agriculture in 2023 do not include federally subsidized crop insurance, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected, as of last August, to cost taxpayers an additional $8-9 billion on average each year. USDA-ERS does, however, expect federal crop insurance indemnities to reach near-record levels in 2023 ($18.55 billion), meaning the combination of relatively higher crop prices plus drought still affecting major crop-producing regions of the US will increase payouts arising from the taxpayer-subsidized program. CBO will release updated budget and economic projections, including revised projected costs for federally subsidized crop insurance, on February 15th.