2NC – Politics

Program for Public Consultation 23 (organization in conjunction with the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland that develops policymaking simulation surveys with input from senior congressional staffers from both parties and outside experts from across the political spectrum), 04/06/2023, School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, “Two-Thirds of Voters Favor a $15 Federal Minimum Wage, $12 Gets Bipartisan Support”, https://publicconsultation.org/uncategorized/two-thirds-of-voters-favor-a-15-federal-minimum-wage-12-gets-bipartisan-support/

An in-depth study conducted by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy finds that two-thirds of American voters favor raising the federal minimum wage to $15, including a majority of Democrats but less than half of Republicans. However, there is bipartisan majority support for a $12 minimum wage.

The current federal minimum has been $7.25 since 2009, but most states have increased their minimum wages, with seven going as high as $15 an hour.

In the public consultation survey of 2,700 registered voters, respondents were presented background information on the minimum wage, as well as how the value of the minimum wage has changed with inflation over time. Next, they evaluated arguments for and against each policy proposal. The contents of the survey were vetted by experts from each side of the debate.

The proposal to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 over a five-year period was favored by 65% nationally, including 90% of Democrats and 64% of independents. Among Republicans, less than half supported the proposal overall (41%), but several demographic groups among Republicans were in favor: women (54%), households earning under $50k (58%) and people of color (56%).

Respondents were also given the opportunity to write in what they believe the minimum wage should be. A bipartisan majority chose $12 or higher (74%, Republicans 53%, Democrats 95%). Democrats went further, with a majority choosing $17 or higher (57%), as did independents with a majority choosing $15 or higher (60%).

The proposal to increase the minimum wage has frequently been paired with a policy of indexing it to inflation, so that its value stays roughly the same over time. This proposal was put forward most recently in the Higher Wages for American Workers Act by Sen. Cotton (R), and was supported by 63%, including majorities of Democrats (80%) and independents (65%), but just under half of Republicans (45%).

The sample was large enough to enable analysis of attitudes in very Republican and very Democratic Congressional districts based on Cook PVI ratings. The $15 proposal was favored by majorities in very red (57%) to very blue districts (79%). Majorities also supported indexing the minimum wage to inflation from very red (58%) to very blue districts (72%)

The survey was fielded online from February 1-14, 2023 with a probability-based national sample of 2,700 registered voters provided by Nielsen Scarborough from its larger sample, which is recruited by telephone and mail from a random sample of households. There is a margin of error of +/- 1.9%.

Congress can compromise on a slightly smaller increase to minimum wage

Shannon Meade 22, Shannon Meade is the executive director of Littler’s Workplace Policy Institute (WPI), where she advocates on behalf of the firm’s clients on legislative and regulatory issues before the Administration, the U.S. Congress and federal and state agencies. Shannon is a highly seasoned government affairs professional with an acute political acumen, “Decreasing Prospects for Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage to $15”, 03/03/2022, Newsweek, https://www.littler.com/publication-press/publication/decreasing-prospects-increasing-federal-minimum-wage-15

The centerpiece of the Biden administration’s labor and jobs agenda is an increase in the federal hourly minimum wage to $15 an hour. Last year President Biden, via executive power, instituted a $15 minimum wage for federal contractors, but it has proven a harder lift on Capitol Hill to legislate this rate on the private sector. To reinvigorate consideration, President Biden called on Congress during his recent State of the Union address to raise the wage rate to $15. The president also urged lawmakers to end the tipped minimum wage, as well as the sub-minimum wage for people with disabilities, according to a fact sheet put out by the White House in advance of the speech.

Congressional Democrats have long shared this same goal, but it remains an elusive legislative accomplishment. The federal minimum wage, therefore, remains unchanged at $7.25 an hour, where it has been since 2009. Given other competing congressional priorities, including a turbulent labor market, supply chain constraints, and rising inflation, the prospect of a major policy change relating to the federal minimum wage is diminishing as we get closer to the mid-term elections.

As a recap, in January 2021, congressional Democrats, led by House Education and Labor Committee Chairman Bobby Scott (D-VA) and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT), reintroduced the “Raise the Wage Act,” which would raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour over a five-year period and eliminate the tipped minimum wage. However, the ability to pass the bill as stand-alone legislation through regular order proved impossible given the narrow Democratic margins in the Senate where the support of 10 Republicans is needed to break a filibuster.

Because of the political stalemate, earlier this year Chairman Sanders sought to advance the wage provision as a part of the budget reconciliation resolution—a procedure that sidesteps the filibuster by requiring only a majority vote to pass the Senate—for President Biden’s COVID-19 recovery stimulus package (the “American Rescue Plan”). However, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough found that the provision violated the rules of the budget reconciliation process and it was stripped out.

No significant efforts have transpired since that time, which has been welcome news to many employers that are still facing unprecedent challenges. For example, hospitality industries, such as travel/tourism, restaurants, hotels, and others continue to struggle with crippling economic losses from the pandemic. At the same time, many hospitality employers of all types and sizes across the nation are struggling with staffing and compensation in response to historic shortages in labor, products, materials, parts and other supply chain challenges, not to mention soaring inflation. Many are also facing fundamental shifts in consumer demand and worker preferences post-pandemic.

Republican lawmakers and other critics continue to argue that $15 is an arbitrary political number that would have unintended economic consequences, including burdening small business by increasing costs, reducing employment, and pushing companies toward automation. National business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Restaurant Association, and the International Franchise Association, further argue that raising the federal minimum wage to $15 on already-struggling small businesses attempting to emerge from the pandemic would force them out of business. Additionally, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office reported that increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour by passing the “Raise the Wage Act” would, on net, reduce employment by approximately 1.4 million workers.

Although many congressional Democrats remain committed to a $15 rate, there is no viable legislative pathway in the current Congress. It is certainly possible, however, that Congress could consider a compromise bill in the future in the range of $11 or $12 an hour or a version that takes into account regional economic realities and differences. In the interim, the proliferation of states and localities raising their wage rates is expected to continue, as is large companies’ increasing their wage rates and overall compensation packages to attract and retain workers.

Manchin would get on board

Rick Newman 21, Rick Newman is a columnist for Yahoo Finance, offering insightful, provocative takes on many of the biggest stories of our time. He was previously Chief Business Correspondent, and before that Pentagon correspondent, for U.S. News & World Report,“Biden might get an $11 minimum wage—but not $15,” 02/03/2021, Yahoo Finance, https://www.yahoo.com/video/biden-might-get-an-11-minimum-wagebut-not-15-220527421.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIJLCi_Wj6fj3JZ75XS6h2kkibxOiRdRVZBq5mFO6uLC7cVgvMQUy8Zz3Y57lUAIULKTia1nIcI3OEvDhMI2J69AgxlZSTNTd7azc-4MUlxANaeLPuikpvSTed6bFXewlBMta3XamgJt-VEgpy6D1jv19B5i67koPlZYXPQsmTmK

Raising the federal minimum wage has been a Democratic priority for years, and Democrats now control the White House and Congress for the first time in a decade. So now might seem like the time.

But there are still barriers to the Democrats’ preferred option, a $15 minimum wage that would phase in over four or five years. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.), who’s taking over as chair of the Senate Budget Committee, has pushed for a $15 wage for at least six years, and President Biden now endorses that. The minimum wage has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009, and it has generally declined relative to inflation for the last 50 years.

Biden wants a $15 minimum wage included in the $1.9 trillion relief bill Congress is drafting, which seems likely to pass by March. There are plenty of Congressional Democrats who support it. But a few Democrats don’t, and that’s probably enough to prevent the $15 minimum wage from passing.

Democrats control the Senate with the narrowest possible majority: a 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote in favor of Dems. Republicans typically oppose a minimum-wage hike en masse, which means it would take every single Senate Democrat to vote for $15.

One Democrat says he won’t— Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. But Manchin says he’d support raising the federal minimum wage to $11, which would still be 52% higher than the current level. West Virginia is one of the lowest-wage states, which means a sharp hike in the federal minimum would hurt employers more than it would hurt businesses in higher-wage states. That’s one of the problems with a federal minimum wage: it doesn’t account for the wide variation in living costs among states.

West Virginia is one of 28 states with a higher minimum wage than the federal standard – $8.75. So an $11 wage might not be that hard for employers to absorb, especially if it were phased in over time. It’s also possible Congress could pass a minimum wage hike this year but delay its implementation until GDP or overall employment have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, so as not to slow hiring as millions of unemployed Americans are trying to get back to work.

Manchin isn’t the lone spoiler on the $15 minimum wage. Five other Democratic senators declined to sponsor a $15 minimum wage bill Bernie Sanders and other Democrats introduced in January. Those five haven’t spelled out their stance the way Manchin has, however, perhaps because they’re reluctant to alienate voters who want a higher wage. Manchin, may have less to fear, as a Democrat representing a relatively conservative state.

Hiking the minimum to $11 might sit well with voters. A Yahoo Finance–Harris Poll survey found that 83% of Americans think $7.25 an hour is too low. But they’re split on how high to raise it. Twenty-nine percent say it should be between $10 and $12; 35% say it should be between $13 and $15; and 13% say it should be higher than $15. Seventeen percent say it should stay where it is, or go lower. The variations probably reflect sharp differences in wages and living costs among the wealthy coasts, big cities, rural areas and towns on the decline.

Even if Democrats agree to scale back their wage proposal from $15 to a lower rate all Democrats can agree on, it still might be hard to pass. For the Senate to pass legislation with a simple majority, it has to happen under the arcane “reconciliation” procedure. And Senate rules say that procedure only applies to bills that affect the federal budget in some way. A new minimum-wage law wouldn’t directly affect spending or revenue, since it’s not a tax and it’s not an expenditure. So the rules could force the Senate to strip a wage hike from the relief bill. It wouldn’t be able to pass as a standalone measure for the same reason.

It’s possible Democrats could attach some contrived tax or spending measure to a wage hike, to satisfy the technical requirements of the reconciliation process. They could also break the Senate rules, which aren’t in the constitution or in any law. But Manchin himself has said he’d be unwilling to vote for a bill that broke the rules, even if he supported the legislation itself. Democrats don’t have nearly as much control as they wish.