Biden is intensely pushing – the US is key

Etgar Lefkovits, Jewish News Syndicate, “‘Washington thinks Israel-Saudi normalization possible’” June 21, 2023 dmr

The United States believes that a landmark diplomatic deal normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is achievable, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said on Tuesday. The remarks come as the Biden administration has embarked on an intense diplomatic push to reach such an agreement, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said could pave the way to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. “There is an increased American involvement on the issue,” Hanegbi told JNS in an interview in Cyprus. “They believe that there is a possibility [to reach an agreement]. Hanegbi said that the Americans had not yet updated the Israeli government on the contours of such an agreement or what their vision is, and said that the situation remains murky. “There is more hidden than known,” he said, using the popular Hebrew saying. At the same time, Hanegbi said that “generally speaking” he was “optimistic” that it was possible to enlarge the circle of Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel since the historic Abraham Accords were signed under President Trump in 2020. He noted, however, that in the case of Saudi Arabia the ball was not in Israel’s court. “It’s up to them,” Hanegbi said. “We want normalization and peace, but they have their own demands of the Americans.” Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. In return for normalization with Israel, Riyadh reportedly wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, something Washington has long opposed, as well as a strong security pact with the United States. Israeli officials had previously said that intense efforts were underway to reach a normalization accord with the Saudis by the end of the year. Netanyahu has called a deal with the Saudis a “quantum leap” for regional peace, which would effectively end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Hanegbi said that the premier’s long-held vision for peace with the Arab world served as “a compass” for regional accords.

Biden is urgently working to secure Congressional support necessary to demonstrate good faith in negotiations

Plitnick 5/28

Mitchell Plitnick is the president of ReThinking Foreign Policy. He is the co-author, with Marc Lamont Hill, of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics. Mitchell's previous positions include vice president at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Director of the US Office of B'Tselem, and Co-Director of Jewish Voice for Peace. “Biden push for Saudi-Israeli normalization reflects misreading of domestic and international politics,” May 28, 2023 dmr

In Ha’aretz on Tuesday, former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas stated :“That Israel and Saudi Arabia have a mutual interest in improving relations goes without saying. Arguing against it would be politically illogical. That the United States has an interest in such a development is a no-brainer as well.” That’s true, as far as it goes, but it obscures the fact that each party has very different, sometimes conflicting, interests and that those interests vary widely in urgency. Oddly, the country that would seem to have the least to gain here is the United States, yet it is the Biden administration that is most passionately pursuing the Saudis and Israelis to come together. U.S. interests? President Joe Biden seems to believe that getting the Saudis and Israelis together in a formal agreement will be a significant boon to his 2024 reelection ambitions. It’s frankly difficult to understand what gives him this idea, but he has it. It’s a mark of his lack of political acumen that he remains mired in a past politics where pro-Israel forces can be swayed significantly toward a Democratic party whose base is increasingly alienated from an authoritarian Israeli government. Certainly, an Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement would be a positive mark in Biden’s reelection pitch. It would give him a foreign policy win and would counter the growing concern in Washington that China—in the wake of its surprising and significant success brokering an Iranian-Saudi rapprochement—was rivaling the United States as the major foreign power in the Middle East. But that’s about as far as Biden’s gains go, and it isn’t much. It will not convince hawkish groups like AIPAC that his administration is preferable to a Republican one that would likely try to give Israel more gifts like the ones Trump provided in such matters as recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights and moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. It will not change the support of right wing Democratic groups like Democratic Majority for Israel, which will certainly support Biden with all they have as the best possible Democrat for the job in their view. It simply isn’t much of a priority, even with pro-Israel potential Democratic voters. Even that meager gain would come at a cost. Liberal and even some moderate Democrats will be angered by the shoddy and shameful reversal by Biden of his once-lofty, though always dishonest, rhetoric around human rights and his claim that he would turn Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) into a “pariah” over his many human rights violations and especially the murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Even more than Biden’s pitiful groveling before MBS last year, brokering this agreement would represent a clarity of cynicism that, while it won’t turn many to the even more amoral and immoral Republicans, will demonstrate the futility of expecting anything more from Democrats than being the slightly preferable party. Yet Biden seems very serious about this, and it’s one of the few issues where he can find some Republican support. The GOP-controlled House Foreign Affairs Committee voted last week to advance a bill that would create an ambassador-level special envoy for the Abraham Accords and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering Dan Shapiro, Barack Obama’s Ambassador to Israel, for the role. This week, Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi are meeting with senior Biden administration officials to discuss Israel-Saudi normalization, among other issues. That comes on the heels of meetings last week between senior White House officials and Ronen Levy, the director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. That all indicates an urgency on the part of the Biden administration. But is it matched by similar enthusiasm among either the Israelis or Saudis?