Normalization is a necessary foreign policy win for Biden – he needs a fopo feather in his cap on the campaign trail

The report was not surprising – Netanyahu visited Saudi Arabia at the end of 2020 and met with MBS in the presence of then-secretary of state Mike Pompeo – and while the two leaders were said to have focused on an Israeli request to allow Israeli-Arabs to fly directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia for the Haj, there is hope for much more. The sense in Jerusalem right now is that there is a window of about a year to finalize a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia. The reason is not because of something in Riyadh or Jerusalem but rather due to the upcoming presidential election in the United States, and because it is there, in Washington DC, where the real decision has to be made about such a deal. As seen by the phone calls, there is communication between Saudi and Israeli leaders. There are economic ties, security ties and even diplomatic coordination that goes on behind the scenes. Can those ties be deepened? Of course, but for now, the question is more about the big step that needs to be taken toward full-blown normalization. The key to that is in Washington. Saudi Arabia has felt the cold shoulder from the US ever since Joe Biden was elected president. It was this distancing that enabled China to insert itself into the region and broker the rapprochement between Saudi and Iran, something that in the past would not have happened. The message was heard in Washington and has been followed up by action. There is a new ambassador in Riyadh who happened to have served in Jerusalem just a few years ago, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently visited there as well and spoke publicly about the administration’s desire to see Israeli-Saudi normalization happen. To move forward with Israel, Saudi Arabia wants to receive a few benefits from the US: arm sales, security guarantees and even a civilian nuclear program with the ability to mine uranium and enrich it domestically. US diplomats do not hide the fact that the decision on this will need to be made by Biden and that it will depend on more than just US ties with MBS. A normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a huge win for Netanyahu. Does Biden want to give him that right now? Biden has not held back on his discontent with Netanyahu and his democratically-elected government. He has yet to invite the Israeli premier to the White House and – as long as it is not clear that the coalition’s judicial reform is completely dead and buried – he might not want to. On the other hand, Biden does need a foreign policy feather in his cap. Until now, the president’s track record in the Middle East does not look great. There was the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan that enabled the Taliban to quickly take over, and China’s growing role in the region. Brokering a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would give the president a big win that could help on the campaign trail. The situation is dynamic, and Netanyahu is doing all he can to move this forward. For him too, a deal with Saudi Arabia would be a huge win and a much-needed distraction from the chaos – caused by the judicial reform, the public protests and the budget talks – that has enveloped his government since it took office at the end of December. Such a deal has the potential to alter the balance of power in the Middle East. With Israel’s top military officers warning of the possibility of war, a normalization deal would be a better alternative.